Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 10

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Uruguay Montevideo		Oriental de La Paz

	1	X	2
	2.80	3.00	2.30
	2.88	3.05	2.30
	3.19	3.06	2.32
	3.09	3.12	2.35	Watch
	2.80	3.00	2.20
	3.02	3.23	2.34
	2.90	2.95	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.89)	3.06 ↓ (3.07)	2.3 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Uruguay Montevideo
30.8%

Draw
29.7%

Oriental de La Paz
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.3%

29.5%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

30.1%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Uruguay Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Oriental de La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Uruguay Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oriental de La Paz than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Uruguay Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Viera M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90', 1 - 1, Rigoleto M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 2.

Uruguay Montevideo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Oriental has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Uruguay Montevideo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Uruguay Montevideo won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:11. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Uruguay Montevideo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Oriental	21	8	8	5	29:22	7	32
14	Uruguay Montevideo	21	4	5	12	19:31	-12	17

Last Results with these Odds

Uruguay Montevideo - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 31.35%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Oriental de La Paz - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 39.15%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
05.07.26	Colón Montevideo - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
27.06.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3:2 ✺
21.06.26	Rentistas - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	1:3 ✺
07.06.26	Tacuarembó - Uruguay Montevideo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLLL
- Oriental de La Paz
Uruguayan Segunda Division
04.07.26	Oriental de La Paz - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
28.06.26	Oriental de La Paz - Colón Montevideo	1:1 ✺
20.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	2:2 ✺
13.06.26	Oriental de La Paz - Rentistas	3:0 ✺
07.06.26	Miramar Misiones - Oriental de La Paz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
14.09.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	0:4
21.06.25	Oriental de La Paz - Uruguay Montevideo	1:1
14.09.24	Oriental de La Paz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:2
02.06.24	Uruguay Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	2:1
21.04.24	Oriental de La Paz - Uruguay Montevideo	3:2
25.10.23	Uruguay Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	0:1
10.06.23	Oriental de La Paz - Uruguay Montevideo	0:0

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