Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerro Largo		Montevideo City Torque

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.6	2.3	Watch
	2.9	3	2.37
	3.55	2.68	2.3
	3.98	2.92	2.24
	3.41	3.01	2.28	Watch
	3.4	2.9	2.15
	3.7	2.81	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.25)	2.85 ↓ (3.28)	2.27 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
26.5%

Draw
32.6%

Montevideo City Torque
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.7%

28.5%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

27.5%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Montevideo City Torque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	27.3%	9.1%

Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cerro Largo will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Montevideo City will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerro Largo: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cerro Largo (votes: 1 - 25%). Montevideo City (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 8. Garcia M. 14. Correa L. 3. Piegas A. 16. Fracchia M. 17. Hernandez A. 15. Assis S. 28. Ramos N. 25. Jourdan E. 13. Barone B. 9. Correa T.	13. Rodriguez G. (G) 17. Aguero E. 2. Romero F. 24. Kagelmacher G. 26. Silvera F. 5. Pizzichillo F. 8. Siles P. 20. Montes G. 18. Lecchini R. 9. Rodriguez S. 10. Obregon E.
Substitutes
11. Anasco M. 22. Bertocchi N. 2. Chocobar G. F. 24. Gonzalez L. (G) 30. Hernandez B. 6. Monserrat M. 10. Pandiani A. 19. Sellecchia F. 4. Souza F. 7. Viera G.	15. Busquets E. 32. Caceres S. 23. Dure L. 19. Guzman D. 14. Kociubinski B. 31. Munoz A. 30. Quintana J. 3. Silva K. 27. Taran J. 1. Torgnascioli F. (G)
Coaches
Nunez D.	Mendez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Romero F. 🟨,
31', Obregon E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Jourdan E. ↓, Bertocchi N. ↑,
46', Barone B. ↓, Anasco M. ↑,
53', Siles P. 🟨,
62', Fracchia M. 🟨,
62', Fracchia M. ↓, Souza F. ↑,
67', Souza F. ↓, Monserrat M. ↑,
69', Bertocchi N. 🟨,
71', Lecchini R. ↓, Guzman D. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Rodriguez S. ⚽, Montes G. (A),
77', Garcia M. ↓, Viera G. ↑,
78', Anasco M. 🟨,
87', Piegas A. 🟨,
89', Montes G. ↓, Kociubinski B. ↑,
90+1', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
90+1', Pizzichillo F. ↓, Caceres S. ↑,
90+8', Bertocchi N. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 2.

Cerro Largo is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montevideo City is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Montevideo City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Montevideo City could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Largo won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	9	6	1	2	19:10	9	19
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:0 ✺
20.02.26	Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
13.02.26	Cerro Largo - Montevideo Wanderers	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
20.01.26	Cerro Largo - Deportes Concepción	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLWL
- Montevideo City Torque
Copa Sudamericana
03.03.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Defensor Sporting	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Montevideo City Torque	0:4 ✺
16.02.26	Montevideo City Torque - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
14.01.26	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	2:3
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.25	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	1:0
25.03.25	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	1:1
04.11.23	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	1:2
27.03.23	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	1:2
31.07.22	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	1:2
05.02.22	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	1:1

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