Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 4

Date: 8 June 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Belvedere (Montevideo)

Referee: Fontes K. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Liverpool Montevideo		Cerro Largo

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.00	4.00	Watch
	1.98	3.10	3.60
	1.89	3.25	3.95
	2.07	3.07	4.35
	1.91	3.17	4.31	Watch
	2.05	3.00	3.60
	2.03	3.04	4.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.75)	3.09 ↓ (3.38)	3.98 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool Montevideo
46.6%

Draw
30%

Cerro Largo
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.1%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

28.4%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Liverpool Montevideo's form might have worsened.

Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Liverpool Montevideo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo Predictions

Users Predictions: Liverpool Montevideo will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernatene M. (G) 3. Strasorier S. 15. Laquidain S. 23. Castillo E. 4. Perdomo F. 27. Romero D. 16. Acosta L. 20. Rabunal M. 10. Degregorio R. M. 7. Martinez F. 19. Bentancourt R.	12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 14. Correa L. 16. Fracchia M. 20. Franca S. 8. Garcia M. 15. Assis S. 5. Marcel S. 11. Anasco M. 9. Correa T. 7. Viera G.
Substitutes
31. Barcelo F. 26. Brizuela T. 12. Cabrera D. 17. de Mello G. 34. Lewis K. 9. Machado R. 6. Milano S. 8. Mir M. 29. Olivera E. 22. Zabala D.	27. Alvez F. 13. Barone B. 22. Bertocchi N. 18. Daguerre D. 25. Jourdan E. 1. Moreno J. (G) 10. Pandiani A. 3. Piegas A. 28. Ramos N. 19. Sellecchia F.
Coaches
Fossati J.	Ordonez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Fracchia M. 🟨,
27', Hernandez A. 🟨,
34', Strasorier S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Correa L. 🟨,
64', Viera G. ↓, Pandiani A. ↑,
67', Pandiani A. 🟨,
68', Romero D. ↓, Lewis K. ↑,
68', Bentancourt R. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
74', Degregorio R. M. ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,
78', Anasco M. ↓, Sellecchia F. ↑,
78', Garcia M. ↓, Ramos N. ↑,
81', Rabunal M. ↓, Zabala D. ↑,
81', Martinez F. ↓, Olivera E. ↑,
86', Marcel S. ↓, Alvez F. ↑,
86', Assis S. ↓, Jourdan E. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cerro Largo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Liverpool is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:20. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Liverpool won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:4. (average 2.1:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
01.06.26	Boston River - Liverpool Montevideo	0:1 ✺
22.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1 ✺
08.05.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTLLW
- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.05.26	Cerro Largo - Cerro	2:0 ✺
23.05.26	Cerro Largo - Boston River	3:0 ✺
17.05.26	Racing Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
11.05.26	Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:3 ✺
03.05.26	Progreso - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:0
07.11.25	Cerro Largo - Liverpool Montevideo	2:0
07.06.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1
18.05.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0
13.11.24	Cerro Largo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:0
06.07.24	Cerro Largo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:0
12.05.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1

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