The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cerro Porteño 66%
Draw 20%
Sportivo San Lorenzo 14.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
67.3%
21.5%
11.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
69.6%
20.8%
10.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
Sportivo San Lorenzo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Cerro Porteño - Sportivo San Lorenzo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Martinez A. (G) 21. Araujo S. 18. Gamarra A. 6. Merolla L. 5. Morel J. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. (C) 16. Ramirez I. 15. Riveros B. 7. Rodriguez D. 19. Vegetti P. 23. Velazquez G.
12. Quinonez W. (G) 32. Aragon F. 9. Barrios J. 16. Benitez A. 19. Caceres L. 4. Doldan J. 2. Esteche L. 25. Fernandez K. 13. Fretes I. 28. Gerzel G. 7. Salcedo S. (C)
Substitutes
31. Aliseda I. 20. Almendra A. E. 13. Benitez A. G. 32. Bobadilla C. 4. Canete Torres A. D. 34. Chena C. 2. Dominguez F. 28. Franco C. 30. Gimenez G. 40. Klimowicz M. 1. Roffo M. (G) 27. Torres J.
18. Alvarez A. 8. Amarilla R. 35. Colman C. 23. Ferreira M. 31. Franco L. (G) 29. Garcia M. 5. Paredes T. 15. Pinatares B. 6. Villamayor H.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Gerzel G. ⚽,
17', Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 🟨,
18', 0 - 2, Gerzel G. ⚽,
24', 1 - 2, Riveros B. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 2, Araujo S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fernandez K. ↓, Paredes T. ↑,
57', Salcedo S. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
63', Gerzel G. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
66', Rodriguez D. ↓, Dominguez F. ↑,
66', Araujo S. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
69', Riveros B. ↓, Benitez A. G. ↑,
78', Merolla L. ↓, Aliseda I. ↑,
78', Ramirez I. ↓, Canete Torres A. D. ↑,
79', 🟨,
79', 🟨,
80', Aragon F. ↓, Pinatares B. ↑,
Penalties (5 - 3)
1, Aliseda I. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Barrios J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Dominguez F. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Pinatares B. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Vegetti P. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Paredes T. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Morel J. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Alvarez A. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Torres J. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.
Sportivo San Lorenzo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
Recently, Sportivo San Lorenzo has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
The betting markets point to Cerro Porteño as the clear and undisputed favorite.
In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Porteño has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:2 (averaging 2.3:0.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Cerro Porteño against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals (averaging 1.5:0 per game).
Paraguay
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Martinez A. (G) 
Araujo S. 
Dominguez F. 
Klimowicz M. 
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