Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 12

Date: 28 September 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Gunther Vogel (San Lorenzo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo San Lorenzo		Deportivo Recoleta

	1	X	2
	2.90	3.20	2.20	Watch
	2.87	3.25	2.15
	3.00	3.35	2.32	Watch
	3.04	3.45	2.36
	2.91	3.4	2.35	Watch
	2.95	3.35	2.30
	3.00	3.37	2.28	Watch
	2.90	3.20	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.85)	3.32 ↑ (3.25)	2.27 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo San Lorenzo
31.4%

Draw
27.8%

Deportivo Recoleta
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.1%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

26.2%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Deportivo Recoleta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Recoleta than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

Sportivo San Lorenzo - Deportivo Recoleta Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Sportivo San Lorenzo will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Recoleta will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Quinonez W. (G) 2. Esteche L. 19. Caceres L. 4. Doldan J. 20. Meza Montiel D. 18. Alvarez A. 21. Gonzalez H. 32. Aragon F. 28. Gerzel G. 23. Ferreira M. 7. Salcedo S. (C)	13. Toledo O. (G) 2. Echeguren Zarza F. A. 4. Pereira M. 32. Monzon L. 28. Mendoza L. 36. Ferreira B. 38. Franco A. 7. Dominguez R. 10. Silva A. (C) 30. Charpentier P. 33. Gonzalez A.
Substitutes
8. Amarilla R. 9. Barrios J. 16. Benitez A. 26. Duarte J. 25. Fernandez K. 22. Ferreira Gonzalez K. 31. Franco L. (G) 13. Fretes I. 29. Garcia M. 15. Pinatares B. 14. Salcedo J. 6. Villamayor H.	17. Baez W. 3. Cardozo L. 6. Espinola J. 14. Figueredo C. 21. Garay C. 5. Marotta N. 1. Marsengo A. (G) 34. Martino R. 15. Medina B. 9. Ortiz R. 31. Schupp M. 24. Vidal T.
Coaches
Fornasari P.	Gonzalez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Silva A. ↓, Baez W. ↑,
46', Charpentier P. ↓, Martino R. ↑,
64', Aragon F. ↓, Salcedo J. ↑,
64', Gonzalez H. ↓, Benitez A. ↑,
64', Alvarez A. ↓, Ferreira Gonzalez K. ↑,
68', Gonzalez A. ↓, Vidal T. ↑,
68', Franco A. ↓, Garay C. ↑,
73', Gerzel G. ↓, Duarte J. ↑,
82', Ferreira M. ↓, Barrios J. ↑,
82', Ferreira B. ↓, Schupp M. ↑,
83', Duarte J. 🟨,

Preview

A dramatic battle between two struggling sides fighting for survival points (ranked 12th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo San Lorenzo won 0.

Both teams have struggled for positive results in recent outings.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo San Lorenzo has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:14 (averaging 1:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Sportivo San Lorenzo against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 0:3 goals (averaging 0:1.5 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Recoleta	13	2	2	9	14:26	-12	8
12	San Lorenzo	14	0	4	10	5:23	-18	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo San Lorenzo
Copa Paraguay
23.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 4 de Mayo	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
11.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - 2 de Mayo	1:2 ✺
01.09.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo San Lorenzo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 WLLLL
- Deportivo Recoleta
Copa Paraguay
24.09.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Guaireña	3:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo Trinidense	1:3 ✺
07.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:0 ✺
03.09.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
25.07.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:1
04.04.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo San Lorenzo	4:2
06.02.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Deportivo Recoleta	0:3
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
16.08.24	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Deportivo Recoleta	0:0
11.05.24	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo San Lorenzo	4:2
08.07.23	Deportivo Recoleta - Sportivo San Lorenzo	2:1

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