Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 13

Date: 17 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Alcorcón

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	4
	1.8	3.25	3.9
	1.87	3.35	4.1
	1.87	3.34	4.05
	1.91	3.39	3.69	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.07
	1.87	3.35	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.83)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	3.99 ↓ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
49.4%

Draw
27.6%

Alcorcón
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

27.9%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

27.4%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Ceuta - Alcorcón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 2. Delgado F. 6. Hernandez C. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 7. Ahmed A. 8. Ramos D. 5. Bellotti M. 19. Jamelli 20. Escudero A. 9. Rodri	1. Ayesa G. (G) 2. Sebastian J. 27. Santiago A. 4. Rojas J. 30. Rodriguez S. 12. Nunez J. 23. Navarro D. 22. Lachevre M. 16. Capitas M. 10. Rodriguez R. 7. Aparicio E.
Substitutes
22. Aguero 11. Aquino D. 14. Blesa Alex 18. El Ftouhi S. 15. Guzman J. 12. Herranz Corral V. 3. Lolo Gonzalez 27. Lozano D. 26. Peri (G) 17. Taufek B. M. 13. Vallejo G. (G)	8. Ballesteros Y. 14. da Costa M. 41. Hernandez A. (G) 35. Llorente E. 15. Manrique C. 17. Navarro S. 9. Perez E. 5. Rentero J. 18. Stitch

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Aparicio E. ⚽,
16', Bellotti M. 🟨,
38', Redruello Nimo C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Escudero A. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
46', Bellotti M. ↓, Taufek B. M. ↑,
50', Navarro D. 🟨,
63', Rodri ↓, El Ftouhi S. ↑,
63', Aparicio E. ↓, Perez E. ↑,
64', El Ftouhi S. 🟥,
72', Capitas M. ↓, da Costa M. ↑,
72', Rodriguez R. ↓, Navarro S. ↑,
72', Delgado F. ↓, Aguero ↑,
72', Nunez J. 🟨,
82', Navarro D. ↓, Ballesteros Y. ↑,
85', Ramos D. ↓, Blesa Alex ↑,
87', 0 - 2, da Costa M. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Ceuta is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alcorcón is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ceuta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Ceuta have a series of guest games.

In this match Ceuta is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceuta won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.11.24	Mérida AD - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.11.24	Xerez CD - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.11.24	Ceuta - Real Murcia	4:2 ✺
26.10.24	Sevilla B - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
19.10.24	Algeciras - Ceuta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWTL
- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.11.24	Villarreal B - Alcorcón	4:0 ✺
03.11.24	Alcorcón - Mérida AD	2:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
30.10.24	Salamanca - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.10.24	Recreativo Huelva - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
20.10.24	Alcorcón - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.03.23	Alcorcón - Ceuta	2:2
23.10.22	Ceuta - Alcorcón	1:2

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