Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 9

Date: 19 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirador (Algeciras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Algeciras		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.9	2.45
	2.65	2.95	2.45
	2.85	3	2.5
	2.97	3.05	2.6
	2.87	2.92	2.52
	2.82	3.04	2.46
	2.85	3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.57)	2.98 ↓ (3.09)	2.5 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
32.5%

Draw
30.8%

Ceuta
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

29.8%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.5%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Algeciras - Ceuta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Venteo I. (G) 20. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 22. Coch A. 5. Gaixas A. 3. Merchan D. 6. Montes E. 19. Illesca M. 16. Aviles J. 8. Turrillo I. 10. Esteban Diego 7. Rodri	1. Lopez P. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 6. Hernandez C. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 19. Jamelli 8. Ramos D. 5. Bellotti M. 14. Blesa Alex 17. Taufek B. M. 18. El Ftouhi S.
Substitutes
21. Celorio N. 25. Fernandez D. (G) 23. Gomez J. 9. Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. 18. Hernandez Garcia J. 14. Javi Alonso 17. Leiva A. 2. Roldan R. 4. Spatz L. M.	22. Aguero 11. Aquino D. 20. Escudero A. 15. Guzman J. 12. Herranz Corral V. 21. Lopez J. 27. Lozano D. 10. Rodriguez C. 13. Vallejo G. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Turrillo I. 🟨,
37', 1 - 0, Rodri ⚽,
44', Ramos D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ramos D. ↓, Aguero ↑,
55', Ahmed A. 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Illesca M. ⚽,
60', Jamelli ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
60', Blesa Alex ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
60', Taufek B. M. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
62', Aviles J. 🟨,
67', Aviles J. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
76', Gaixas A. 🟨,
79', Rodri ↓, Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. ↑,
79', Turrillo I. ↓, Celorio N. ↑,
81', Redruello Nimo C. ↓, Guzman J. ↑,
87', Ahmed A. 🟨,
88', Javi Alonso 🟨,
90', Illesca M. ↓, Javi Alonso ↑,
90+7', Gomez J. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Algeciras won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Ceuta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Algeciras won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:9 (average 1.4:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Algeciras won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.10.24	Algeciras - Hércules	2:3 ✺
05.10.24	Betis B - Algeciras	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Algeciras - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
22.09.24	Intercity - Algeciras	0:1 ✺
14.09.24	Algeciras - Marbella	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTTWL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.10.24	Ceuta - Intercity	0:2 ✺
06.10.24	Atlético Madrid B - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Ceuta - Recreativo Huelva	1:0 ✺
22.09.24	Betis B - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
15.09.24	Ceuta - Atlético Sanluqueño	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.03.24	Ceuta - Algeciras	3:2
21.10.23	Algeciras - Ceuta	1:0
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.02.23	Algeciras - Ceuta	1:2
02.10.22	Ceuta - Algeciras	1:3
Club Friendly
22.09.20	Algeciras - Ceuta	3:1
18.08.19	Algeciras - Ceuta	0:1
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
18.02.18	Ceuta - Algeciras	1:0

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