Match Info

SPAIN: Copa del Rey - 1/64-finals

Date: 6 November 2024, Wednesday

Location: Chapín (Jerez)


	Xerez CD		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	7.5	3.4	1.5
	5	3.4	1.77
	3.5	3.1	2.1	Watch
	6.5	3.55	1.51
	6.48	3.62	1.58	Watch
	6.5	3.6	1.5	Watch
	6.52	3.76	1.58
	3.5	3.1	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.69 ↑ (3.7)	3.44 ↑ (3.23)	1.71 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Xerez CD
16.7%

Draw
27.6%

Ceuta
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

28.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

27.1%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Xerez CD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Xerez CD's form might have worsened.

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ceuta's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Xerez CD than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Xerez CD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ceuta, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Xerez CD - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Xerez will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Ceuta will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos A. (G) 2. Garcia R. 21. Lopez Matellan S. 15. Garcia D. 12. Josete 4. Adri 5. Barba G. 14. Misffut J. 7. Dominguez D. 8. Diaz I. 22. Coll Makole A.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 2. Delgado F. 11. Aquino D. 12. Herranz Corral V. 6. Hernandez C. 14. Blesa Alex 10. Rodriguez C. 15. Guzman J. 25. Cantero Y. 19. Jamelli 17. Taufek B. M.
Substitutes
10. Charaf 16. Del Rio A. 9. Garcia N. 1. Gil I. (G) 3. Martinez Romero A. 20. Paco Torres 6. Reina M. 29. Santisteban D. 23. Ulloa A. 26. Valiente A.	22. Aguero 7. Ahmed A. 5. Bellotti M. 18. El Ftouhi S. 20. Escudero A. . Guichard S. 3. Lolo Gonzalez 1. Lopez P. (G) 27. Lozano D. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 9. Rodri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Aquino D. ⚽,
38', Herranz Corral V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Diaz I. ↓, Del Rio A. ↑,
61', Misffut J. ↓, Charaf ↑,
61', Dominguez D. ↓, Santisteban D. ↑,
62', Herranz Corral V. ↓, Bellotti M. ↑,
62', Taufek B. M. ↓, Aguero ↑,
62', Blesa Alex ↓, Ahmed A. ↑,
65', Rodriguez C. ↓, El Ftouhi S. ↑,
69', Coll Makole A. 🟨,
72', Coll Makole A. ↓, Valiente A. ↑,
78', Rodriguez A. ↓, Garcia N. ↑,
81', Lopez Matellan S. 🟨,
83', Jamelli ↓, Lolo Gonzalez ↑,
88', Lolo Gonzalez 🟨,
90+2', Barba G. 🟥,

Preview

Xerez is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ceuta is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ceuta will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Xerez won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.3:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Xerez won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Xerez CD
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
03.11.24	San Fernando - Xerez CD	1:0 ✺
26.10.24	Xerez CD - Orihuela	0:2 ✺
20.10.24	Almeria B - Xerez CD	1:0 ✺
13.10.24	Xerez CD - Cadiz CF B	1:1 ✺
06.10.24	Antoniano - Xerez CD	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
03.11.24	Ceuta - Real Murcia	4:2 ✺
26.10.24	Sevilla B - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
19.10.24	Algeciras - Ceuta	2:0 ✺
13.10.24	Ceuta - Intercity	0:2 ✺
06.10.24	Atlético Madrid B - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
05.06.21	Xerez CD - Ceuta	0:1
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
28.03.21	Xerez CD - Ceuta	0:0
30.09.18	Xerez CD - Ceuta	1:1

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