Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 11

Date: 3 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Real Murcia

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.8	3.3
	2.2	2.8	3.2
	2.3	2.9	3.3
	2.33	2.86	3.36
	2.27	2.91	3.28	Watch
	2.26	3	3.26
	2.3	2.9	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.56)	2.88 ↑ (2.78)	3.29 ↑ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
40.4%

Draw
31.8%

Real Murcia
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

33%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

31.5%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceuta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Ceuta - Real Murcia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 2. Delgado F. 6. Hernandez C. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 5. Bellotti M. 3. Lolo Gonzalez 10. Rodriguez C. 7. Ahmed A. 9. Rodri	1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 2. Mier J. 6. Gonzalez A. 5. Jaso Zunzarren A. 21. Cadete 22. Juan Carlos 24. Moha Moukhliss 18. Vicente D. 30. Palmberg 27. Toral A. 9. Benito P. A. P.
Substitutes
11. Aquino D. 14. Blesa Alex 18. El Ftouhi S. 15. Guzman J. 12. Herranz Corral V. 19. Jamelli 21. Lopez J. 1. Lopez P. (G) 27. Lozano D. 17. Taufek B. M.	16. Boateng R. 7. Buron L. 11. Carrillo J. 20. Knight B. 14. Leon P. 23. Lopez A. 29. Matheus Cadorini 13. Piedra I. (G) 17. Rojas C. 4. Saveljich E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Ahmed A. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Palmberg ⚽,
32', 2 - 1, Escudero A. ⚽,
35', Jaso Zunzarren A. 🟨,
38', 3 - 1, Escudero A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Jaso Zunzarren A. ↓, Leon P. ↑,
46', Mier J. ↓, Saveljich E. ↑,
51', Moha Moukhliss 🟨,
55', 4 - 1, Escudero A. ⚽,
56', Benito P. A. P. ↓, Matheus Cadorini ↑,
64', Delgado F. 🟨,
70', Moha Moukhliss ↓, Knight B. ↑,
70', Ahmed A. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
73', Rodriguez C. 🟨,
73', Vicente D. 🟨,
75', 4 - 2, Leon P. ⚽,
77', Rodriguez C. ↓, Jamelli ↑,
77', Bellotti M. ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
81', Palmberg ↓, Boateng R. ↑,
85', Escudero A. ↓, Taufek B. M. ↑,
85', Rodri ↓, El Ftouhi S. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2).

Recent matches Ceuta is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Murcia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ceuta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Ceuta will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
26.10.24	Sevilla B - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
19.10.24	Algeciras - Ceuta	2:0 ✺
13.10.24	Ceuta - Intercity	0:2 ✺
06.10.24	Atlético Madrid B - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Ceuta - Recreativo Huelva	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLTW
- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.10.24	Villarreal B - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
20.10.24	Real Murcia - Marbella	0:0 ✺
13.10.24	Recreativo Huelva - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
06.10.24	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	3:1 ✺
29.09.24	Real Murcia - Betis B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.04.24	Real Murcia - Ceuta	1:0
05.11.23	Ceuta - Real Murcia	1:0

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