Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 27

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Referee: de Ena Wolf A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Laos	beIN Connect
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium 2, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ceuta		Granada

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.85	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.65
	2.45	3.05	2.88	Watch
	2.67	3.05	3.05
	2.59	3.03	2.96	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.62	3.05	3.02	Watch
	2.6	3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)	3.02 ↓ (3.2)	2.9 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
36.7%

Draw
31%

Granada
32.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

29.2%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

29.7%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Granada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Granada than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	21.4%	42.9%

Ceuta - Granada Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Granada will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceuta: 12% – 65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Granada (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Granada (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Granada (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 1 - 20%). Granada (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (C) 7. Ahmed A. 6. Hernandez C. 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 19. Jamelli 5. Youness 12. Illescas M. 27. Domenech M. 8. Zalazar K. 22. Kone K.	1. Zidane L. (G) 28. Naasei O. 5. Lama M. 24. Williams L. 22. Diallo B. 8. Aleman P. 4. Alcaraz R. (C) 41. Gonzalez I. 7. Sola A. 9. Petit G. 11. Arnaiz J. M.
Substitutes
17. Almenara G. 26. Bassinga A. 14. Bodiger Y. 20. Campana J. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C. 2. Sanchez M. 25. Sanchez S. 11. Schor I. 13. Vallejo G. (G)	13. Astralaga A. (G) 10. Bouldini M. 17. Diaby B. 40. Diocou B. 23. Gagnidze L. 3. Hormigo D. 36. Juanjo 18. Lemos A. 19. Pascual J. 26. Rodelas S. 14. Trigueros M.
Coaches
Romero J.	Rojo Martin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Domenech M. ⚽, Illescas M. (A),
34', Domenech M. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
37', Alcaraz R. 🟨,
37', Alcaraz R. ↓, Diocou B. ↑,
43', Gonzalez I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Lama M. 🟨,
55', Jamelli 🟨,
62', Youness 🟨,
64', Naasei O. ↓, Lemos A. ↑,
64', Diallo B. ↓, Rodelas S. ↑,
64', Petit G. ↓, Pascual J. ↑,
66', Youness ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Diocou B. ⚽, Gonzalez I. (A),
77', Jamelli ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
77', Illescas M. ↓, Campana J. ↑,
77', Kone K. ↓, Schor I. ↑,
79', 2 - 1, Zalazar K. ⚽, Matos Jose (A),
85', Ahmed A. 🟨,
85', Aleman P. ↓, Bouldini M. ↑,
86', Sanchez S. 🟨,
90+4', Hernandez C. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 15).

Ceuta is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Granada is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Granada may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Ceuta: Anuar (Injury) Fernandez Sanchez M. (Red Card)

There will not play in Granada: Casadesus P. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz S. (Red Card) Saenz P. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ceuta: Sanchez M. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ceuta won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Granada CF	8	3	2	3	13:13	0	11
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Ceuta - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.16%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Granada - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.68%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
15.02.26	Huesca - Ceuta	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Almería - Ceuta	4:2 ✺
26.01.26	Ceuta - Leonesa	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Ceuta - Valladolid	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	Málaga - Ceuta	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL
- Granada CF
Spanish LaLiga2
14.02.26	Granada - Valladolid	5:1 ✺
06.02.26	Leganés - Granada	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Granada - Racing Santander	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Cádiz - Granada	1:2 ✺
19.01.26	Granada - Eibar	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
07.12.25	Granada - Ceuta	1:1

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