Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 23

Date: 26 January 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Serbia	Arena Sport 10, Arena Sport 1x2
Singapore	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ceuta		Leonesa

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.4	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.6
	2.15	3.2	3.3
	2.24	3.33	3.5
	2.2	3.29	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.3
	2.21	3.34	3.45	Watch
	2.2	3.14	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.98)	3.24 ↓ (3.42)	3.42 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
43.6%

Draw
28.9%

Leonesa
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

27.7%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.8%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Ceuta - Leonesa Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Leonesa will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceuta: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Leonesa (1.71) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Ceuta (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Ceuta (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ceuta will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Leonesa (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 6. Hernandez C. (C) 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 20. Campana J. 5. Youness 8. Zalazar K. 7. Ahmed A. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 22. Kone K.	13. Badia E. (G) 17. Calero I. 4. Rodri Suarez (C) 36. Barzic M. 21. Hinojo R. 15. Ribeiro L. 23. Diallo Selu M. 28. Ojeda T. 20. Tresaco R. 7. Collado D. 10. Chacon L.
Substitutes
17. Almenara G. 26. Bassinga A. 14. Bodiger Y. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 18. de la Fuente K. 27. Domenech M. 19. Illesca M. 1. Lopez P. (G) 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C. 25. Sanchez S.	12. Al Amin H. 1. Banuz M. (G) 5. Fornos Q. 24. Garcia V. 8. Gonzalez Y. 9. Justo M. 6. Maestre S. 11. Moreno V. 26. Rafus A. (G) 16. Ribeiro T. 3. Satrustegui E. 19. Sobrino R.
Coaches
Romero J.	Ziganda C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
27', Calero I. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Tresaco R. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Fernandez Sanchez M. ⚽, Youness (A),
42', 2 - 1, Campana J. ⚽, Zalazar K. (A),
45', Ribeiro L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Zalazar K. 🟨,
55', Fernandez Sanchez M. 🟨,
62', Collado D. ↓, Sobrino R. ↑,
62', Diallo Selu M. ↓, Maestre S. ↑,
65', Kone K. ↓, de la Fuente K. ↑,
66', Hernandez C. 🟨,
69', Calero I. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,
69', Tresaco R. ↓, Moreno V. ↑,
70', Zalazar K. ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
71', Campana J. ↓, Illesca M. ↑,
77', Ribeiro L. 🟥,
82', Fernandez Sanchez M. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
83', Ahmed A. ↓, Domenech M. ↑,
83', Ojeda T. ↓, Justo M. ↑,
88', Illesca M. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 1, Bodiger Y. ⚽, Sanchez S. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 11 and 18).

In recent matches, Ceuta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Leonesa has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ceuta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ceuta is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ceuta: Jamelli (Injury) Sanchez M. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceuta won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceuta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 3:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Ceuta - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 47.77%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
17.01.26	Ceuta - Valladolid	0:3 ✺
11.01.26	Málaga - Ceuta	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Ceuta - FC Andorra	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Real Sociedad B - Ceuta	1:3 ✺
14.12.25	Ceuta - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWWT
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
17.01.26	Leonesa - Sporting de Gijón	2:4 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Leonesa - Athletic Bilbao	3:4 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
10.01.26	FC Andorra - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Leonesa - Real Sociedad B	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Las Palmas - Leonesa	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
25.10.25	Leonesa - Ceuta	0:1
Primera RFEF Play Offs
31.05.25	Ceuta - Leonesa	4:3
28.05.25	Leonesa - Ceuta	2:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.01.23	Ceuta - Leonesa	2:1
04.09.22	Leonesa - Ceuta	2:0

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