Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 14

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Referee: Arcediano D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App
Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Ceuta		Leganés

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.95	3.2	Watch
	2.35	2.98	3.1	Watch
	2.5	2.9	3.5
	2.62	2.77	3.11	Watch
	2.48	2.99	3.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.58)	2.92 ↓ (3.05)	3.24 ↑ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
38.4%

Draw
32.4%

Leganés
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

30.7%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

30.3%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Ceuta - Leganés Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Leganés will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceuta: 10.6% – 60.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Ceuta (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 3. Matos Jose 6. Hernandez C. 24. Cantero Y. 5. Youness 8. Zalazar K. 19. Jamelli 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 7. Ahmed A. 18. de la Fuente K.	1. Soriano J. (G) 7. Pena R. 2. Marvel 6. Aguilar Lopez G. 3. Saenz J. (C) 8. Cisse S. 17. Garcia N. 24. Diawara A. 10. Cruz J. 11. Duk 19. Garcia D.
Substitutes
17. Almenara G. 14. Bodiger Y. 4. Caparros A. 20. Escudero A. 15. Gonzalez D. 22. Kone K. 1. Lopez P. (G) 11. Ortuno J. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C. 21. Vallejo M.	21. Campos A. 32. Fernandez S. 22. Figueredo S. 31. Garrido J. (G) 38. Gueye D. 26. Guirao C. 14. Lopez R. 23. Millan A. 5. Miquel I. 20. Plano O. 13. San Roman M. (G)
Coaches
Romero J.	Lopez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Marvel 🟨,
20', Pena R. 🟨,
28', Anuar 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Pena R. ⚽,
42', Cantero Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', 0 - 2, Diawara A. ⚽,
55', Anuar ↓, Kone K. ↑,
59', Zalazar K. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
64', Garcia D. ↓, Plano O. ↑,
74', Jamelli ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
75', Youness ↓, Ortuno J. ↑,
75', de la Fuente K. ↓, Vallejo M. ↑,
81', Marvel ↓, Miquel I. ↑,
81', Duk ↓, Figueredo S. ↑,
88', Pena R. ↓, Guirao C. ↑,
88', Cruz J. ↓, Millan A. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Soriano J. (Own goal),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 and 15).

Ceuta is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Leganés has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ceuta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ceuta: Bassinga A. (Injury) Sanchez M. (Injury) Sanchez S. (Injury)

There will not play in Leganés: Franquesa E. (Injury) Melero G. (Red Card) Pulido R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Ceuta: Obeng S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leganés: de la Fuente M. (Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Ceuta - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 36.32%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
02.11.25	Córdoba - Ceuta	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	La Unión - Ceuta	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
25.10.25	Leonesa - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Ceuta - Mirandés	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Albacete Balompié - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWWWT
- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga2
08.11.25	Real Sociedad B - Leganés	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Leganés - Burgos	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Azuaga - Leganés	1:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
25.10.25	Eibar - Leganés	0:0 ✺
19.10.25	Leganés - Málaga	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLWTW

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