Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 11

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Reino de León (León)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports


	Leonesa		Ceuta

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.05	Watch
	2.32	3.05	3.05	Watch
	2.48	3.2	3.15
	2.68	3.27	2.63	Watch
	2.35	3.33	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.68)	3.22 ↓ (3.27)	3.01 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leonesa
39.2%

Draw
29.4%

Ceuta
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

28.9%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

30%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	40%	50%

Leonesa - Ceuta Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Leonesa will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Ceuta will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceuta: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Ceuta (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Ceuta (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceuta (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Badia E. (G) 17. Calero I. 4. Rodri Suarez (C) 36. Barzic M. 21. Hinojo R. 19. Sobrino R. 14. Bicho 28. Ojeda T. 10. Chacon L. 9. Justo M. 23. Diallo Selu M.	13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 6. Hernandez C. (C) 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 8. Zalazar K. 5. Youness 19. Jamelli 7. Ahmed A. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 18. de la Fuente K.
Substitutes
1. Banuz M. (G) 7. Collado D. 11. Cortes P. 24. Garcia V. 8. Gonzalez Y. 33. Larios J. 6. Maestre S. 2. Mboula J. 18. Paraschiv D. 22. Pibe 15. Ribeiro L. 16. Ribeiro T.	26. Bassinga A. 14. Bodiger Y. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 22. Kone K. 1. Lopez P. (G) 12. Obeng S. 11. Ortuno J. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C. 2. Sanchez M. 25. Sanchez S.
Coaches
Ziganda C.	Romero J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Jamelli (Pen),
23', de la Fuente K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', de la Fuente K. ↓, Kone K. ↑,
65', Justo M. ↓, Collado D. ↑,
65', Sobrino R. ↓, Ribeiro L. ↑,
70', Ojeda T. 🟨,
74', Diallo Selu M. ↓, Cortes P. ↑,
82', Zalazar K. ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
82', Ahmed A. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
82', Jamelli ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
82', Chacon L. ↓, Paraschiv D. ↑,
82', Hinojo R. ↓, Larios J. ↑,
89', Fernandez Sanchez M. ↓, Caparros A. ↑,
90+4', Barzic M. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 and 10).

Leonesa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ceuta is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Leonesa: Satrustegui E. (Knee Injury) Tresaco R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Leonesa: Mboula J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Ceuta: Almenara G. (Injury) Kone K. (Injury) Ortuno J. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Leonesa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leonesa won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
18.10.25	Zaragoza - Leonesa	0:5 ✺
13.10.25	Córdoba - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
06.10.25	Leonesa - Albacete Balompié	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Valladolid - Leonesa	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Leonesa - Castellón	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.7 WLTWL
- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
18.10.25	Ceuta - Mirandés	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Albacete Balompié - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
03.10.25	Ceuta - Eibar	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Cádiz - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Ceuta - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Primera RFEF Play Offs
31.05.25	Ceuta - Leonesa	4:3
28.05.25	Leonesa - Ceuta	2:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.01.23	Ceuta - Leonesa	2:1
04.09.22	Leonesa - Ceuta	2:0

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