The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Chapecoense 28.1%
Draw 33.1%
Ceará 38.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.1%
29%
43%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.2%
28.1%
44.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
The chances for Chapecoense have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.
Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-0.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ceará could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
16.7%
33.3%
50%
Chapecoense - Ceará Predictions
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Ceará will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 79. Marcelinho 3. Eduardo Doma 32. Jhonnathan 6. Mancha 5. Auremir (C) 31. Tarik 30. Thomas Bedinelli 7. Marcinho 99. Rafael Carvalheira 89. Mario Sergio
1. Richard (G) 6. Ramos R. 42. Matheus Felipe (C) 4. David Ricardo 14. Eric 8. De Lucca 10. Lucas Mugni 97. Lourenco 16. Erick Pulga 11. Aylon 77. Lucas Rian
Substitutes
37. Clar W. 35. Foguinho 10. Giovanni Augusto 91. Jenison 59. Lucas Buchecha 11. Marcelinho 8. Marlone 26. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 77. Neilton 9. Pedro Perotti 18. Schramm K. 14. Vitor Becker
98. Andrey 31. Barcelo F. 94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 7. Castro F. 5. Jean Irmer 3. Joao Pedro 18. Rafinha 2. Rai Ramos 40. Ramon Menezes 28. Recalde J. 70. Talisson
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo
Leo Conde
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
39', 0 - 1, Mancha (Own goal),
43', Mario Sergio 🟨,
45+1', Thomas Bedinelli 🟨,
45+2', Marcinho 🟨,
45+3', Lourenco 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 1, Jhonnathan ⚽, Marcinho (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Auremir ↓, Giovanni Augusto ↑,
46', Thomas Bedinelli ↓, Foguinho ↑,
46', Lucas Mugni ↓, Rai Ramos ↑,
59', 2 - 1, Marcelinho ⚽, Foguinho (A),
64', Lucas Rian ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,
68', Mario Sergio ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
76', Giovanni Augusto 🟨,
77', De Lucca ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
82', Lucas Mugni 🟨,
82', Marcinho ↓, Vitor Becker ↑,
83', Marcelinho 🟨,
87', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
88', Lourenco ↓, Andrey ↑,
89', Eric ↓, Talisson ↑,
90+2', Mancha 🟨,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 5).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 0.
Recent matches Chapecoense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Ceará is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Ceará could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Ceará will have a small advantage in this match.
There will not play in Chapecoense: Rodrigo Moledo
(Injury)
Romulo
(Injury)
Ronaldo Mendes
(Injury)
There are questionable in Chapecoense: Felipe Vieira
(Injury)
There are questionable in Ceará: Gabriel Lacerda
(Injury)
Last 13 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11-20.
Including matches at home between the teams Chapecoense won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-4.
Brazil
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Leo Vieira (G) 
Ramos R. 
Lucas Mugni 
Clar W. 
Barcelo F. 
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