Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 16

Date: 23 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Ceará		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	4.2	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.5
	1.98	3.15	4.05
	2.06	3.28	4.27
	2.09	3.02	3.93	Watch
	2.15	3	3.6
	2.02	3.24	4.2	Watch
	2.16	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.16)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)	3.91 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
45.7%

Draw
30%

Mirassol
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29.4%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71%	12.9%	16.1%

Ceará - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 22 - 71%). Mirassol will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 12.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 55% – 87%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 13 - 68.4%). Mirassol (votes: 2 - 10.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 2. Ramos R. 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 30. Nicolas 88. Fernando Sobral 20. Diego 10. Lucas Mugni 27. Galeano A. 7. Pedro Henrique 9. Pedro Raul	22. Walter (G) 20. Daniel Borges 44. Gabriel 3. Jemmes 6. Reinaldo 25. Neto Moura 8. Danielzinho (C) 27. Gabriel 91. Chico 77. Alesson 11. Negueba
Substitutes
11. Aylon 29. Bruno Tubarao 33. Eder 70. Fabiano 77. Fernandinho 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 97. Lourenco 31. Lucas Lima 44. Marcos Victor 8. Matheus Araujo 26. Richardson 19. Romulo	23. Alex Muralha (G) 96. Carlos Eduardo 10. Chico Kim 17. Cristian Renato 15. Da Silva 95. Edson Carioca 16. Felipe Jonatan 21. Jose Aldo 18. Matheus Bianqui 5. Roni 90. Thomazella (G) 41. Yago Felipe
Coaches
Leo Conde	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Chico ⚽, Alesson (A),
18', Gabriel 🟨,
22', 0 - 2, Negueba ⚽,
27', Bruno Ferreira 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fernando Sobral ↓, Lourenco ↑,
58', Gabriel ↓, Chico Kim ↑,
58', Chico ↓, Cristian Renato ↑,
63', Alesson ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
66', Lucas Mugni ↓, Aylon ↑,
66', Ramos R. ↓, Bruno Tubarao ↑,
76', Galeano A. ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
79', Negueba ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
79', Neto Moura ↓, Roni ↑,
83', Aylon 🟨,
84', Diego ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
88', Walter 🟨,
89', Danielzinho 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Recent performances by Ceará have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ceará has had a series of away games.

Ceará will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Fernandinho (Inactive) Luiz Otavio (Knee Injury) Matheus Bahia (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Mirassol: Joao Victor (Red Card) Lucas Ramon (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Ceará: Gabriel Lacerda (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Chico (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
20.07.25	Internacional RS - Ceará	1:0 ✺
16.07.25	Ceará - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
13.07.25	Fortaleza - Ceará	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	0:1 penalties ✺
07.06.25	Sampaio Corrêa - Ceará	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LLWWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
19.07.25	Mirassol - Santos	3:0 ✺
16.07.25	Palmeiras - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
01.06.25	Mirassol - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
24.05.25	São Paulo - Mirassol	0:2 ✺
18.05.25	Internacional RS - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.2 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
17.08.24	Ceará - Mirassol	1:2
29.04.24	Mirassol - Ceará	3:2
12.11.23	Ceará - Mirassol	2:0
16.07.23	Mirassol - Ceará	1:1

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