Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 25

Date: 9 September 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Augusto V. C. M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ponte Preta		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	4.2	Watch
	1.98	3	3.8
	2	3.1	4
	2.02	3.15	4.42
	1.99	3.02	4.3	Watch
	2	3.1	4
	2.06	3.08	3.92	Watch
	2	3.1	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.93)	3.08 ↓ (3.14)	4.08 ↓ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
46.7%

Draw
30.3%

Chapecoense
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

29.6%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

29.1%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Ponte Preta - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: Ponte Preta will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Igor Inocencio (C) 4. Mateus Silva 6. Sergio Raphael 33. Risso G. 80. Hudson 15. Castro 7. Dodo 11. Iago Dias 35. Gabriel Novaes 19. Renato	12. Leo Vieira (G) 98. Mailton 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 4. Joao Paulo 6. Mancha 5. Auremir 31. Tarik 30. Thomas Bedinelli 7. Marcinho 99. Rafael Carvalheira 89. Mario Sergio
Substitutes
3. Edson Rogerio 8. Emerson Santos 70. Guilherme Dantas 5. Heitor Roca 13. Joilson 22. Kaue 14. Luiz Felipe 77. Matheus Regis 21. Ramon 98. Venicius 12. William (G)	22. Bruno Vinicius 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 10. Giovanni Augusto 91. Jenison 59. Lucas Buchecha 79. Marcelinho 11. Marcelinho 26. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 77. Neilton 9. Pedro Perotti
Coaches
Baptista N.	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Joao Paulo 🟨,
26', Mateus Silva 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Joao Paulo ⚽, Mailton (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Iago Dias ↓, Ramon ↑,
46', Risso G. ↓, Heitor Roca ↑,
55', Ramon ↓, Guilherme Dantas ↑,
62', Mailton 🟨,
66', Thomas Bedinelli ↓, Giovanni Augusto ↑,
69', Sergio Raphael 🟥,
71', Giovanni Augusto (Pen),
73', Guilherme Dantas 🟨,
73', Mailton ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
73', Joao Paulo ↓, Eduardo Doma ↑,
77', Dodo ↓, Matheus Regis ↑,
80', Bruno Leonardo ↓, Bruno Vinicius ↑,
85', Renato ↓, Kaue ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Mario Sergio ⚽,
89', Tarik ↓, Lucas Buchecha ↑,
90', Mario Sergio ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
90+8', Igor Inocencio 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 13 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponte Preta won 1.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Ponte Preta will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Elvis (Red Card)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Felipe Vieira (Injury) Rodrigo Moledo (Injury) Romulo (Injury) Ronaldo Mendes (Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Ponte Preta won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Ponte Preta won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
30.08.24	Santos - Ponte Preta	2:2 ✺
23.08.24	Ponte Preta - Operário Ferroviario	0:1 ✺
20.08.24	Amazonas - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
16.08.24	Ponte Preta - Goiás	1:1 ✺
11.08.24	Coritiba - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TLLTT
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
31.08.24	Chapecoense - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
25.08.24	Chapecoense - CRB Maceio	0:0 ✺
21.08.24	América Mineiro - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
17.08.24	Chapecoense - Guarani	0:4 ✺
10.08.24	Ituano - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.05.24	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	0:0
06.08.23	Ponte Preta - Chapecoense	1:0
29.04.23	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	1:1
03.09.22	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	3:0
24.05.22	Ponte Preta - Chapecoense	0:0
21.01.21	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	1:0
20.10.20	Ponte Preta - Chapecoense	0:5

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