Match Info

League One - Round 46

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: The Valley (London)

Referee: Purkiss S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Charlton Athletic		Burton Albion

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.9	5.5	Watch
	1.57	4.1	5.25
	1.6	4	5.5	Watch
	1.58	3.99	5.71
	1.59	3.88	5.63	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5.8
	1.59	4.05	5.7	Watch
	1.6	4	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.82)	3.97 ↑ (3.53)	5.57 ↑ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Charlton Athletic
59.4%

Draw
23.7%

Burton Albion
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

26.2%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.3%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Charlton Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Charlton Athletic's performance.

Burton Albion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burton Albion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Charlton Athletic than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Charlton Athletic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burton Albion than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burton Albion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Charlton Athletic - Burton Albion Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Charlton (1.70) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Burton (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Charlton (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Charlton Athletic will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.85% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Charlton Athletic will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Charlton (votes: 16 - 94.1%). Burton (votes: 1 - 5.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Maynard-Brewer A. (G) 2. Ramsay K. 4. Mitchell A. 3. Gillesphey M. 16. Edwards J. 6. Coventry C. 10. Docherty G. (C) 27. Watson T. 17. Gilbert A. 7. Campbell T. 24. Godden M.	1. Crocombe M. (G) 26. Delap F. 20. Sraha J. 36. Lofthouse K. 17. Armer J. 2. Godwin-Malife U. (C) 19. Williams D. 32. Bennett M. 44. Forde A. 8. Webster C. 23. Tavares F.
Substitutes
18. Anderson K. 23. Bouzanis D. (G) 35. Enslin K. 30. Fullah I. 29. Kanu D. 33. Mbick M. 15. McIntyre T.	3. Dodgson O. 13. Isted H. (G) 7. Kalinauskas T. 22. Larsson J. 24. McKiernan J. J. 38. Newall J. 39. Taroni J.
Coaches
Jones N.	Bowyer G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', Maynard-Brewer A. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Bennett M. (Pen),
24', 1 - 1, Godden M. ⚽, Watson T. (A),
34', 2 - 1, Godden M. ⚽, Edwards J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Forde A. ↓, Kalinauskas T. ↑,
46', Delap F. ↓, Dodgson O. ↑,
51', 3 - 1, Mitchell A. ⚽, Coventry C. (A),
65', Bennett M. ↓, Larsson J. ↑,
70', Campbell T. ↓, Mbick M. ↑,
71', Coventry C. ↓, Anderson K. ↑,
71', Godden M. ↓, Kanu D. ↑,
82', Watson T. 🟨,
82', Dodgson O. 🟨,
85', Gilbert A. ↓, Fullah I. ↑,
88', Edwards J. ↓, Enslin K. ↑,
90', Webster C. ↓, Newall J. ↑,
90', Tavares F. ↓, Taroni J. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 20).

Charlton is Qualified for League One (Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Charlton won 2.

Charlton is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Burton has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Charlton may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Burton has had a series of home games.

In this match, Charlton is the team to beat.

There will not play in Charlton: Leaburn M. (Injury)

There will not play in Burton: Akoto N. (Inactive) Bajrami G. (Knee Injury) Gilligan C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Charlton: Berry L. (Injury) Jones L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Burton: Jones J. (Foot Injury) Lofthouse K. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Charlton won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Charlton won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 1.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Charlton Athletic
English League One
26.04.25	Wrexham - Charlton Athletic	3:0 ✺
21.04.25	Wycombe Wanderers - Charlton Athletic	0:4 ✺
18.04.25	Charlton Athletic - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Cambridge United - Charlton Athletic	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Charlton Athletic - Lincoln City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWWWT
- Burton Albion
English League One
29.04.25	Burton Albion - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Burton Albion - Cambridge United	2:1 ✺
21.04.25	Burton Albion - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
18.04.25	Exeter City - Burton Albion	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Burton Albion - Huddersfield Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.11.24	Burton Albion - Charlton Athletic	0:1
20.01.24	Burton Albion - Charlton Athletic	2:0
23.12.23	Charlton Athletic - Burton Albion	1:1
10.04.23	Charlton Athletic - Burton Albion	3:2
12.11.22	Burton Albion - Charlton Athletic	3:3
19.03.22	Charlton Athletic - Burton Albion	2:0
13.11.21	Burton Albion - Charlton Athletic	0:1

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