Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 22

Date: 17 February 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Chaves		Boavista

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.8	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.65	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.76	3.15	2.82
	2.79	3.14	2.85
	2.5	3	2.75	Watch
	2.71	3.2	2.68	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.38)	3.11 ↓ (3.58)	2.75 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
35%

Draw
30.5%

Boavista
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

26.8%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

26.8%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chaves's form might have worsened.

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chaves, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	30.8%	46.2%

Chaves - Boavista Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Boavista will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Boavista: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 13. Fernandes V. 6. Phete T. 40. Pius J. 27. Carraca 80. Raphael Guzzo 14. Essugo D. 21. Guima (C) 33. Cruz S. 99. Jo 23. Hernandez H.	99. Joao Goncalves (G) 79. Malheiro P. 23. Sasso V. 26. Abascal R. 20. Ferreira F. 42. Makouta G. 24. Perez S. (C) 8. Lourenco B. 10. Reisinho M. 7. Agra S. 9. Bozenik R.
Substitutes
7. Benny 77. Correia J. 70. Morim H. 31. Moura R. (G) 28. Nwakali K. 9. Paulo Victor 20. Ribeiro R. 10. Sanca L. 19. Vitoria S.	80. Berna 6. Camara I. 27. De Santis J. 70. Onyemaechi B. 16. Silva J. 76. Sousa T. (G) 59. Tavares M. 18. Vukotic I. 13. Watai M.
Coaches
Morgado L.	Paiva R.

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 10).

Chaves is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Boavista is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Chaves won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
10.02.24	Moreirense - Chaves	1:0 ✺
04.02.24	Chaves - Farense	1:1 ✺
31.01.24	Braga - Chaves	1:1 ✺
21.01.24	Chaves - Rio Ave	0:0 ✺
13.01.24	Chaves - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LTTTL
- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
10.02.24	Boavista - Estoril Praia	2:1 ✺
05.02.24	Casa Pia - Boavista	0:0 ✺
28.01.24	Boavista - Portimonense	1:4 ✺
19.01.24	Benfica - Boavista	2:0 ✺
14.01.24	Vizela - Boavista	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
18.09.23	Boavista - Chaves	4:1
27.05.23	Chaves - Boavista	1:4
23.01.23	Boavista - Chaves	1:1

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