Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 19

Date: 28 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI (Porto)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2


	Boavista		Portimonense

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.5	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.6
	2.09	3.34	3.65
	2.14	3.34	3.84
	1.95	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.06	3.5	3.57	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.73)	3.37 ↓ (3.71)	3.61 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boavista
45.7%

Draw
28%

Portimonense
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

25.4%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

24.8%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boavista has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boavista's form might have worsened.

Portimonense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portimonense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boavista, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portimonense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Boavista - Portimonense Predictions

Users Predictions: Boavista will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Joao Goncalves (G) 79. Malheiro P. 23. Sasso V. 26. Abascal R. 20. Ferreira F. 42. Makouta G. 24. Perez S. (C) 7. Agra S. 10. Reisinho M. 21. Morais T. 9. Bozenik R.	32. Nakamura K. (G) 27. Guga 44. Pedrao (C) 22. Relvas F. 14. Seck M. 25. Lucas Ventura 13. Dener 7. Jasper S. 11. Carlinhos 77. Varela H. 10. Pereira H.
Substitutes
80. Berna 6. Camara I. 11. dos Santos L. 8. Lourenco B. 90. Machado T. 76. Sousa T. (G) 59. Tavares M. 18. Vukotic I. 13. Watai M.	76. Alcobia R. 19. Carrillo R. 18. Costa G. 33. Igor Formiga 28. Luan 17. Silva do Nascimento D. 6. Sousa R. 12. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 99. Zinho
Coaches
Couto J.	Paulo Sergio

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Boavista won 3.

Recent matches Boavista is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Portimonense is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Boavista could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Boavista will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Boavista: Awaziem C. (National selection) Cesar (Injury) Dabo A. (Injury) Malheiro P. (Muscle Injury) Onyemaechi B. (National selection)

There will not play in Portimonense: Monteiro T. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Boavista won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Boavista won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boavista FC
Liga Portugal
19.01.24	Benfica - Boavista	2:0 ✺
14.01.24	Vizela - Boavista	1:4 ✺
05.01.24	Boavista - Porto	1:1 ✺
30.12.23	Gil Vicente - Boavista	1:0 ✺
16.12.23	Boavista - Vitoria Guimarães	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWTLT
- Portimonense SC
Liga Portugal
21.01.24	Portimonense - Gil Vicente	0:2 ✺
12.01.24	Portimonense - Farense	1:0 ✺
07.01.24	Rio Ave - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
30.12.23	Portimonense - Sporting Lisbon	1:2 ✺
17.12.23	Moreirense - Portimonense	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
19.08.23	Portimonense - Boavista	1:4
29.01.23	Boavista - Portimonense	4:2
07.08.22	Portimonense - Boavista	0:1
12.02.22	Portimonense - Boavista	1:1
12.09.21	Boavista - Portimonense	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
01.08.21	Boavista - Portimonense	2:0
Liga Portugal
15.05.21	Boavista - Portimonense	1:0

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