Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 18

Date: 21 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Melo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Chaves		Rio Ave

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.25	2.38	Watch
	3	3.1	2.4	Watch
	3	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.9	3.3	2.66
	3.14	3.22	2.51
	2.8	3.2	2.38	Watch
	3.16	3.31	2.42	Watch
	2.95	3.25	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.66)	3.22 ↓ (3.24)	2.46 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
31.7%

Draw
29.6%

Rio Ave
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

29.2%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

30.3%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Rio Ave has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.8%	21.7%	43.5%

Chaves - Rio Ave Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 8 - 34.8%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 10 - 43.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rio Ave: 23.2% – 63.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 77. Correia J. (C) 19. Vitoria S. 40. Pius J. 33. Cruz S. 28. Nwakali K. 13. Fernandes V. 80. Raphael Guzzo 99. Jo 23. Hernandez H. 20. Ribeiro R.	18. Jhonatan (G) 23. Josue Sa 42. Pantalon R. 3. Nobrega M. 20. Costinha 21. Graca J. 10. Amine 6. Guga (C) 77. Fabio Ronaldo 22. Boateng E. 9. Ruiz L.
Substitutes
7. Benny 27. Carraca 70. Morim H. 31. Moura R. (G) 9. Paulo Victor 8. Pedro J. 6. Phete T. 10. Sanca L. 3. Ygor Nogueira	81. Aziz 8. Gomes V. 28. Helder Sa 14. Joca 82. Magrao (G) 5. Tanlongo M. 11. Ventura B. 4. William P. 70. Ze Manuel
Coaches
Morgado L.	Freire L.

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chaves won 1.

Chaves has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Rio Ave is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chaves could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Chaves: Guima (National selection) Langa B. (National selection) Sylla H. (Injury) Ygor Nogueira (Injury)

There will not play in Rio Ave: Andre Pereira (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Chaves won 2 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 14-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
13.01.24	Chaves - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
07.01.24	Famalicão - Chaves	2:2 ✺
29.12.23	Porto - Chaves	1:0 ✺
17.12.23	Chaves - Casa Pia	1:3 ✺
10.12.23	Estoril Praia - Chaves	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTLLL
- Rio Ave FC
Liga Portugal
14.01.24	Benfica - Rio Ave	4:1 ✺
07.01.24	Rio Ave - Portimonense	2:0 ✺
23.12.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
16.12.23	Rio Ave - Vizela	1:1 ✺
10.12.23	Arouca - Rio Ave	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
13.08.23	Rio Ave - Chaves	2:0
26.02.23	Rio Ave - Chaves	1:0
05.09.22	Chaves - Rio Ave	1:1
Portuguese Liga 2
15.05.22	Rio Ave - Chaves	3:0
10.02.22	Chaves - Rio Ave	2:1
Club Friendly
24.07.19	Chaves - Rio Ave	1:0
Liga Portugal
08.03.19	Chaves - Rio Ave	1:1

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