Match Info

ENGLAND: FA TROPHY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 13 January 2024, Saturday


	Chelmsford City		Wealdstone

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.4	2.3
	2.6	3.5	2.45
	2.72	3.55	2.44
	2.59	3.55	2.44
	2.6	3.4	2.25
	2.61	3.5	2.42
	2.7	3.45	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.81)	3.48 ↓ (3.63)	2.37 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
34.9%

Draw
26.4%

Wealdstone
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

25.1%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

24.1%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Wealdstone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wealdstone than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Wealdstone could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chelmsford City - Wealdstone Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 3.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Wealdstone could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Wealdstone have a series of guest games.

Wealdstone will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 24-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Chelmsford won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
06.01.24	Worthing - Chelmsford City	2:3 ✺
01.01.24	Chelmsford City - Braintree Town	3:0 ✺
26.12.23	Braintree Town - Chelmsford City	0:3 ✺
23.12.23	Chelmsford City - Torquay United	2:0 ✺
16.12.23	St Albans City - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 WWWWL
- Wealdstone
English National League
06.01.24	Ebbsfleet United - Wealdstone	2:0 ✺
26.12.23	Maidenhead United - Wealdstone	0:2 ✺
23.12.23	Wealdstone - Hartlepool United	4:4 ✺
English FA Trophy
20.12.23	Billericay Town - Wealdstone	1:4 ✺
English National League
16.12.23	Dagenham & Redbridge - Wealdstone	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.4 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
04.01.23	Chelmsford City - Wealdstone	2:1
Club Friendly
30.07.22	Wealdstone - Chelmsford City	0:3
English National League South
25.02.20	Wealdstone - Chelmsford City	0:1
12.10.19	Chelmsford City - Wealdstone	1:3
22.04.19	Chelmsford City - Wealdstone	0:3
15.09.18	Wealdstone - Chelmsford City	2:3
16.04.18	Chelmsford City - Wealdstone	3:0

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