Match Info

Date: 17 March 2021, Wednesday


	Chelsea		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	3.25
	2.3	3.2	3.3
	2.4	3.2	3.4
	2.4	3.05	3.25
	2.45	3.18	3.34
	2.3	3.2	3.3
	2.43	3.22	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.24)	3.16 ↓ (3.25)	3.32 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
40.5%

Draw
30.4%

Atlético Madrid
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29.4%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

21.8%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+17%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelsea, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético Madrid, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	21.2%	25.5%

Chelsea - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 137 users predict this event. Chelsea will win (votes: 73 - 53.3%). Atlético will win (votes: 35 - 25.5%). It will Tie (votes: 29 - 21.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chelsea: 44.9% – 61.7%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

2nd leg. No spectators. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Chelsea was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (85%), has a chance of semis (47%), has a chance of final (23%), has a small chance of win league (11%).

Atlético was already of round of 16, has a small chance of qtrs (15%), has a small chance of semis (7%), has a very small chance of final (3%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

Chelsea is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Atlético is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chelsea could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Chelsea will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Chelsea won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Chelsea won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
13.03.21	Leeds United - Chelsea	0:0 ✺
08.03.21	Chelsea - Everton	2:0 ✺
04.03.21	Liverpool - Chelsea	0:1 ✺
28.02.21	Chelsea - Manchester United	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.02.21	Atlético Madrid - Chelsea	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TWWTW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
13.03.21	Getafe - Atlético Madrid	0:0 ✺
10.03.21	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
07.03.21	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:1 ✺
28.02.21	Villarreal - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.02.21	Atlético Madrid - Chelsea	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
23.02.21	Atlético Madrid - Chelsea	0:1
05.12.17	Chelsea - Atlético Madrid	1:1
27.09.17	Atlético Madrid - Chelsea	1:2
30.04.14	Chelsea - Atlético Madrid	1:3
22.04.14	Atlético Madrid - Chelsea	0:0
UEFA Super Cup
31.08.12	Chelsea - Atlético Madrid	1:4

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