Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: England D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
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World	Sport 24 Extra


	Leeds United		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.5	2
	3.85	3.35	2.08
	4.08	3.45	2.04
	4.02	3.53	2.01	Watch
	3.8	3.5	1.85
	4.05	3.67	2.02	Watch
	3.75	3.4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.91 ↓ (4.06)	3.49 ↓ (3.99)	2.01 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
24.6%

Draw
27.6%

Chelsea
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

23.8%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.1%

23.5%

53.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Chelsea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chelsea could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.3%	7.3%	85.4%

Leeds United - Chelsea Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Chelsea (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (70 of 81 users predict this - 86.42%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.96% – 93.88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (31 of 33 users predict this - 93.94%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 5.9%). Chelsea (votes: 32 - 94.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Perri (G) 6. Rodon J. 15. Bijol J. 5. Struijk P. 2. Bogle J. 22. Tanaka A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 18. Stach A. 3. Gudmundsson G. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 14. Nmecha L.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 23. Chalobah T. 4. Adarabioyo T. 5. Badiashile B. 3. Cucurella M. 17. Andrey Santos 8. Fernandez E. (C) 41. Estêvão 20. Joao Pedro 11. Gittens J. 9. Delap L.
Substitutes
11. Aaronson B. 23. Bornauw S. 26. Darlow K. (G) 29. Gnonto W. 44. Gruev I. 20. Harrison J. 24. Justin J. 19. Okafor N. 10. Piroe J.	34. Acheampong J. 49. Garnacho A. 38. Guiu M. 27. Gusto M. 21. Hato J. 24. James R. 12. Jorgensen F. (G) 7. Neto P. 10. Palmer C.
Coaches
Farke D.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Bijol J. ⚽, Stach A. (A),
35', Stach A. 🟨,
39', Estêvão 🟨,
43', 2 - 0, Tanaka A. ⚽, Bogle J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Estêvão ↓, Neto P. ↑,
46', Badiashile B. ↓, Gusto M. ↑,
50', 2 - 1, Neto P. ⚽, Gittens J. (A),
61', Gittens J. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
61', Delap L. ↓, Palmer C. ↑,
67', Nmecha L. ↓, Okafor N. ↑,
67', Tanaka A. ↓, Gruev I. ↑,
72', 3 - 1, Calvert-Lewin D. ⚽,
77', Andrey Santos ↓, Guiu M. ↑,
86', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
87', Bogle J. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
90+4', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Bornauw S. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1.

Leeds is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chelsea is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Chelsea is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Leeds: James D. (Thigh Injury) Longstaff S. (Calf Injury) Stach A. (Concussion)

There will not play in Chelsea: Caicedo M. (Red Card) Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Leeds: Bornauw S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 1.1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
29.11.25	Manchester City - Leeds United	3:2 ✺
23.11.25	Leeds United - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Nottingham Forest - Leeds United	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Leeds United	3:0 ✺
24.10.25	Leeds United - West Ham United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLLLW
- Chelsea
English Premier League
30.11.25	Chelsea - Arsenal	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Chelsea - Barcelona	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
22.11.25	Burnley - Chelsea	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Chelsea - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
28.02.24	Chelsea - Leeds United	3:2
English Premier League
04.03.23	Chelsea - Leeds United	1:0
21.08.22	Leeds United - Chelsea	3:0
11.05.22	Leeds United - Chelsea	0:3
11.12.21	Chelsea - Leeds United	3:2
13.03.21	Leeds United - Chelsea	0:0
05.12.20	Chelsea - Leeds United	3:1

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