Match Info

LaLiga - Round 32

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Manzano J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, beIN Sports MENA English 2, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
China	iQIYI
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	NOW Sports 2
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India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV
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Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport
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Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
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Switzerland	Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 10
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	DSports 1
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, SCTV 15, SCTV Online, VTVcab


	Atlético Madrid		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.75	3.75	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.7
	1.96	3.86	3.98
	2.08	3.73	3.55
	1.85	3.5	3.6
	1.96	3.84	3.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.38)	3.73 ↑ (3.39)	3.74 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
48.9%

Draw
25.6%

Athletic Bilbao
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

28%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

28.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético Madrid's performance.

Athletic Bilbao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Athletic Bilbao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	12.3%	7.7%

Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: 65 users predict this event. Atlético will win (votes: 52 - 80%). Athletic will win (votes: 5 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 12.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 70.3% – 89.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Athletic (5.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Athletic (2.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Atlético (2.04) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Athletic (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Athletic (votes: 6 - 54.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 15. Lenglet C. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 8. Barrios P. 6. Koke (C) 10. Baena A. 7. Griezmann A. 9. Sorloth A.	1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 30. Rego A. 9. Williams I. (C) 20. Gomez U. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
19. Alvarez J. 32. Bonar J. 5. Cardoso J. 34. Diaz J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 23. Gonzalez N. 24. Le Normand R. 4. Mendoza R. 16. Molina N. 1. Musso J. (G) 21. Vargas O.	5. Alvarez Y. 12. Areso J. 7. Berenguer A. 19. Boiro A. 49. Garcia E. 25. Izeta 14. Laporte A. 23. Navarro R. 27. Padilla A. (G) 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Paredes A. ⚽, Ruiz de Galarreta I. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
49', 1 - 1, Griezmann A. ⚽,
54', 2 - 1, Sorloth A. ⚽, Baena A. (A),
58', Barrios P. ↓, Cardoso J. ↑,
63', Llorente M. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
63', Griezmann A. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
63', Berchiche Y. ↓, Boiro A. ↑,
63', Gomez U. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
70', Williams N. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
70', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
70', Williams I. ↓, Berenguer A. ↑,
72', Koke ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
72', Simeone G. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 1, Sorloth A. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
90+7', 3 - 2, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Rego A. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 3.

Recent form of Atlético has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Athletic has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Atlético: Almada T. (Red Card) Gimenez J. M. (Injury) Hancko D. (Injury) Lookman A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Jauregizar M. (Red Card) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Coach's decision)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.5:0.7).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 3.41% Ath Bilbao: 0.47%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	7	5	1	1	16:7	9	16
10	Ath Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7:6	1	8

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 39.97%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
22.04.26	Elche - Atlético Madrid	3:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:3 penalties ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
11.04.26	Sevilla - Atlético Madrid	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.04.26	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LLLLW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
21.04.26	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Getafe - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Athletic Bilbao - Betis	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
06.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	1:0
01.03.25	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
31.08.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	0:1
27.04.24	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.02.24	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	3:0
07.02.24	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	0:1
Spanish LaLiga
16.12.23	Athletic Bilbao - Atlético Madrid	2:0

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