Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/128-FINALS

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Whaddon Road (Cheltenham)


	Cheltenham Town		Alvechurch

	1	X	2
	1.25	6.5	11
	1.2	6.5	10.5
	1.22	7	10.5
	1.21	6.6	11
	1.22	6.57	10.35
	1.17	6	13
	1.19	6.55	11.5	Watch
	1.23	6.8	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.21 ↓ (1.31)	6.57 ↑ (5.77)	11.11 ↑ (7.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cheltenham Town
77.3%

Draw
14.3%

Alvechurch
8.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.4%

16.2%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

13.5%

14.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cheltenham Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cheltenham Town's performance.

Alvechurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (-17.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cheltenham Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvechurch than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alvechurch could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	18.2%	18.2%

Cheltenham Town - Alvechurch Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Cheltenham will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Alvechurch will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cheltenham: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Replayed if draw.

Cheltenham is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alvechurch is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Cheltenham have a series of home games.

Recently Alvechurch have a series of guest games.

In this match Cheltenham is the unquestionable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cheltenham Town
English League One
29.10.22	Cheltenham Town - Milton Keynes Dons	0:0 ✺
25.10.22	Cheltenham Town - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
22.10.22	Burton Albion - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.10.22	Cheltenham Town - West Ham United U21	1:2 ✺
English League One
15.10.22	Cheltenham Town - Bristol Rovers	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWLLL
- Alvechurch FC
English FA Trophy
29.10.22	Nuneaton Town - Alvechurch	1:2 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
25.10.22	Bedford Town - Alvechurch	0:3 ✺
22.10.22	Kings Langley - Alvechurch	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
15.10.22	Alvechurch - Worksop Town	3:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
08.10.22	Bedford Town - Alvechurch	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WWTWW

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