Match Info

League Two - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Whaddon Road (Cheltenham)

Referee: Mulhall S. (Eng)


	Cheltenham Town		Fleetwood Town

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.2	3.3	2.15
	3.35	3.45	2.08
	3.29	3.52	2.19
	3.50	2.72	2.37	Watch
	3.22	3.3	2.18	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.82)	3.3 ↑ (3.27)	2.15 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cheltenham Town
28.2%

Draw
28.4%

Fleetwood Town
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

28.6%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

28.6%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Fleetwood Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fleetwood Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fleetwood Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	7.1%	71.4%

Cheltenham Town - Fleetwood Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Cheltenham will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Fleetwood will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fleetwood: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fleetwood (1.56) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fleetwood (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fleetwood Town will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Fleetwood (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Day J. (G) 2. Jude-Boyd A. 24. Sherring S. 5. Wilson J. (C) 3. Harmon G. 8. Young L. 26. Stevenson B. 21. Hutchinson I. 16. Martin J. 20. Bickerstaff J. 22. Archer E.	13. Lynch J. (G) 44. Mullarkey T. 18. Holgate H. 3. Medley Z. 33. Hume D. 15. Davies J. 6. Bonds E. (C) 10. Helm M. 7. Graydon R. 17. Evans C. 16. Ennis E.
Substitutes
14. Broom R. 41. Diallo M. (G) 29. King T. 4. Kinsella L. 12. Power D. 15. Taylor T. 30. Willcox F.	9. Davies W. 1. Harrington D. (G) 14. McCann L. 20. Neal H. 11. Norwood J. 34. Roberts L. 8. Virtue-Thick M.
Coaches
Cotterill S.	Wild P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Helm M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Bonds E. 🟨,
53', Harmon G. 🟨,
61', Mullarkey T. 🟨,
66', 1 - 0, Hutchinson I. ⚽, Archer E. (A),
67', Graydon R. ↓, Davies W. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Martin J. ⚽, Hutchinson I. (A),
71', Evans C. ↓, Neal H. ↑,
71', Davies J. ↓, Virtue-Thick M. ↑,
71', Helm M. ↓, Norwood J. ↑,
75', Martin J. ↓, Broom R. ↑,
75', Bickerstaff J. ↓, Taylor T. ↑,
76', Ennis E. ↓, McCann L. ↑,
88', Hutchinson I. ↓, Kinsella L. ↑,
90+3', Stevenson B. ↓, Willcox F. ↑,
90+4', Neal H. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cheltenham won 2.

Recent form of Cheltenham has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fleetwood has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fleetwood is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Cheltenham: Anderson T. (Inactive) Angol L. (Red Card) Cundy R. (Injury) Pell H. (Red Card) Thomas J. (Injury)

There will not play in Fleetwood: Coughlan R. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Cheltenham: Mazionis J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fleetwood: Bolton J. (Injury) Rooney S. (Injury) Virtue-Thick M. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cheltenham won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:15. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cheltenham won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Cheltenham Town - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.17%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Fleetwood Town - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.23%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cheltenham Town
English League Two
27.09.25	Grimsby Town - Cheltenham Town	7:1 ✺
20.09.25	Cheltenham Town - Oldham Athletic	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Crawley Town - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Cheltenham Town - Accrington Stanley	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Plymouth Argyle - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWL
- Fleetwood Town
English League Two
27.09.25	Fleetwood Town - Colchester United	4:2 ✺
20.09.25	Cambridge United - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Fleetwood Town - Walsall	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Notts County - Fleetwood Town	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Fleetwood Town - Accrington Stanley	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
08.02.25	Fleetwood Town - Cheltenham Town	2:0
28.09.24	Cheltenham Town - Fleetwood Town	0:2
English League One
29.03.24	Fleetwood Town - Cheltenham Town	1:2
03.10.23	Cheltenham Town - Fleetwood Town	0:2
04.03.23	Cheltenham Town - Fleetwood Town	1:0
16.08.22	Fleetwood Town - Cheltenham Town	0:0
12.02.22	Cheltenham Town - Fleetwood Town	2:0

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