Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 13

Date: 15 December 2025, Monday

Location: Chernihiv Stadium (Černihiv)


	Chernihiv		Metalurh Zaporizhya

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.55	8.2
	1.34	4.53	8.15	Watch
	1.3	4.33	8.5
	1.33	4.46	8
	1.3	4.5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.6)	4.47 ↑ (3.8)	8.27 ↑ (4.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernihiv
68.7%

Draw
20.3%

Metalurh Zaporizhya
11%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

24.1%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

23.3%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernihiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chernihiv's performance.

Metalurh Zaporizhya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Metalurh Zaporizhya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernihiv than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chernihiv that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metalurh Zaporizhya than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Metalurh Zaporizhya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Chernihiv - Metalurh Zaporizhya Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernihiv (votes: 2 - 50%). Metalurh Z (votes: 2 - 50%).

Users Predictions: Chernihiv will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Tatarenko M. (C) 13. Bezgubchenko D. 8. Bybik A. 20. Fateev D. 12. Kartushov Y. 11. Novikov A. 33. Porokhnya A. 55. Romanchenko A. 6. Shalfeev Y. 3. Shumylo M. 23. Zenchenko O.	76. Mokrytskyi V. (G) 18. Bliznichenko A. (C) 19. Borysenko V. 3. Doroshenko D. 7. Irodovskyi D. 27. Klymenko V. 53. Kostyuchenko D. 9. Nekhtiy V. 8. Savitskyi A. 23. Slyusar D. 17. Yurechko I.
Substitutes
17. Chaban V. 24. Dmytrovych D. D. 2. Galstyan E. 99. Herasymenko D. (G) 10. Koydan V. 7. Myronenko D. 22. Roshchynskyi O. (G) 77. Serdyuk M. 21. Shkolnyi V. 88. Stolyarchuk A. 80. Terekhovets N. 25. Volskyi D.	99. Bilyaev K. 15. Chervinskyi D. 33. Klimov G. (G) 29. Lisnyak R. 25. Misanov M. 22. Tuzenko D. 10. Zelinskyi D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Lisnyak R. ⚽,
29', Shalfeev Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
68', Misanov M. ↓, Zaichenko Y. ↑,
70', Shalfeev Y. ↓, Koydan V. ↑,
70', Bybik A. ↓, Zenchenko O. ↑,
87', 1 - 1, Fateev D. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 in the zone Persha Liga (Relegation) and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Druha Liga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chernihiv won 2.

Chernihiv has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Metalurh Z has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Chernihiv is considered a favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Chernihiv won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chernihiv won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chernihiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
09.12.25	Chernihiv - Probiy Horodenka	3:0 ✺
29.11.25	Chernihiv - Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Viktoriya Sumy - Chernihiv	3:0 ✺
12.11.25	Livyi Bereh Kyiv - Chernihiv	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Chernihiv - Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWLTL
- Metalurh Zaporizhya
Ukrainian Persha Liga
07.12.25	Metalurh Zaporizhya - Nyva Ternopil	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Podillya Khmelnytskyi - Metalurh Zaporizhya	3:0 ✺
15.11.25	Metalist Kharkiv - Metalurh Zaporizhya	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Metalurh Zaporizhya	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Metalurh Zaporizhya - Livyi Bereh Kyiv	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Persha Liga
12.06.25	Metalurh Zaporizhya - Chernihiv	0:2
08.06.25	Chernihiv - Metalurh Zaporizhya	3:0
29.10.23	Chernihiv - Metalurh Zaporizhya	1:3
27.08.23	Metalurh Zaporizhya - Chernihiv	4:2
05.11.22	Chernihiv - Metalurh Zaporizhya	0:0
17.09.22	Metalurh Zaporizhya - Chernihiv	0:2

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