Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 16

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Chernihiv Stadium (Černihiv)


	Chernihiv		Probiy Horodenka

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.2	3.65
	1.92	3.28	3.82	Watch
	1.91	2.9	3.8
	1.85	3.22	4.01
	1.96	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.26)	3.14 ↓ (3.21)	3.78 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernihiv
47.1%

Draw
28.9%

Probiy Horodenka
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

28.3%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

28.7%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernihiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chernihiv's performance.

Probiy Horodenka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Probiy Horodenka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernihiv than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chernihiv that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Probiy Horodenka than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Probiy Horodenka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Chernihiv - Probiy Horodenka Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chernihiv will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Probiy will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Probiy (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Probiy (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Probiy (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Tatarenko M. (C) 13. Bezgubchenko D. 8. Bybik A. 20. Fateev D. 12. Kartushov Y. 11. Novikov A. 33. Porokhnya A. 55. Romanchenko A. 6. Shalfeev Y. 3. Shumylo M. 23. Zenchenko O.	25. Kovalenko M. A. (G) 3. Bilyi I. (C) 19. Dmytruk I. 23. Drekalo A. 22. Gavrylyuk N. 16. Guk I. 15. Kharuk R. 10. Orynchak B. 9. Pylypchuk D. 2. Radulskyi V. 17. Volynets D.
Substitutes
17. Chaban V. 24. Dmytrovych D. D. 19. Dorosh N. 2. Galstyan E. 99. Herasymenko D. (G) 7. Myronenko D. 22. Roshchynskyi O. (G) 77. Serdyuk M. 21. Shkolnyi V. 38. Shushko P. 88. Stolyarchuk A. 25. Volskyi D.	90. Babanin V. 12. Barabanov V. (G) 8. Drygan B. 26. Golodryga R. 5. Savchyn V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Serdyuk M. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Novikov A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kharuk R. ↓, Sondey I. ↑,
46', Felipovych V. ↓, Dmytruk I. ↑,
48', 3 - 0, Stolyarchuk A. ⚽,
72', Serdyuk M. ↓, Koydan V. ↑,
80', Myronenko D. ↓, Zenchenko O. ↑,
80', Novikov A. ↓, Volskyi D. ↑,
80', Fateev D. ↓, Shushko P. ↑,
90+2', Bezgubchenko D. ↓, Dorosh N. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Persha Liga (Relegation) and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Chernihiv may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chernihiv might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chernihiv won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chernihiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
29.11.25	Chernihiv - Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Viktoriya Sumy - Chernihiv	3:0 ✺
12.11.25	Livyi Bereh Kyiv - Chernihiv	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Chernihiv - Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Inhulets - Chernihiv	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WLTLT
- Probiy Horodenka
Ukrainian Persha Liga
29.11.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Probiy Horodenka	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Probiy Horodenka - Livyi Bereh Kyiv	0:2 ✺
09.11.25	Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk - Probiy Horodenka	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Probiy Horodenka - Viktoriya Sumy	3:2 ✺
25.10.25	Probiy Horodenka - Feniks-Mariupol	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Persha Liga
03.08.25	Probiy Horodenka - Chernihiv	1:0

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