Match Info

National League South - Round 34

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: The Meadow (Chesham)


	Chesham United		Ebbsfleet United

	1	X	2
	3	3.25	2.2
	3.01	3.31	2.25
	3	3.48	2.23	Watch
	3	3.1	2.25
	3.02	3.16	2.21
	3.1	3.33	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.9)	3.27 ↓ (3.51)	2.21 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesham United
30.4%

Draw
28.1%

Ebbsfleet United
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

26.4%

41.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

26.3%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Ebbsfleet United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Ebbsfleet United aligns with the current prediction.

Chesham United - Ebbsfleet United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Seaman C. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
48', 1 - 1, Weiss M. ⚽,
55', 2 - 1, Lafleur A. ⚽,
76', 3 - 1, Bennetts J. ⚽,
90+7', 4 - 1, Oliyide K. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 8 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Chesham is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Ebbsfleet has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ebbsfleet may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ebbsfleet is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chesham won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of English National League South for now

Ebbsfleet: 3.01% Chesham: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Ebbsfleet	6	3	3	0	7:3	4	12
19	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16:19	-3	10

Last Results with these Odds

Chesham United - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 31.98%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Ebbsfleet United - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 41.59%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesham United
English National League South
17.02.26	Chesham United - Eastbourne Borough	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Salisbury - Chesham United	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Chippenham Town - Chesham United	1:4 ✺
24.01.26	Chesham United - Maidenhead United	1:1 ✺
20.01.26	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Chesham United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWTW
- Ebbsfleet United
English National League South
17.02.26	Bath City - Ebbsfleet United	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Ebbsfleet United - Totton	4:0 ✺
10.02.26	Ebbsfleet United - Enfield Town	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Salisbury - Ebbsfleet United	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Ebbsfleet United - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
22.11.25	Ebbsfleet United - Chesham United	2:1

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