Match Info

National League North - Round 33

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Deva Stadium (Chester)


	Chester		Buxton

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.5	2.63
	2.38	3.45	2.62
	2.4	3.65	2.67
	2.38	3.76	2.61	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.5
	2.31	3.42	2.6
	2.36	3.5	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.13)	3.53 ↓ (3.82)	2.61 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chester
38.8%

Draw
26%

Buxton
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

24.3%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

24.7%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chester, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Chester - Buxton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Willoughby K. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
86', 1 - 0, Mottley-Henry D. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chester won 4.

Chester is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Buxton has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chester may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chester might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Chester won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chester won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Chester: 10.41% Buxton: 4.86%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13:9	4	17
9	Buxton	10	5	1	4	18:18	0	16

Last Results with these Odds

Chester - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.58%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Buxton - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.12%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chester City
English National League North
10.02.26	Chester - Alfreton Town	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Bedford Town - Chester	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Chester - Radcliffe	1:3 ✺
27.01.26	Marine - Chester	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Peterborough Sports - Chester	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TWLLL
- Buxton FC
English National League North
10.02.26	Buxton - Peterborough Sports	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Buxton - Spennymoor Town	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Radcliffe - Buxton	1:5 ✺
17.01.26	Buxton - Marine	4:0 ✺
10.01.26	Oxford City - Buxton	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
08.11.25	Buxton - Chester	1:2
30.04.25	Chester - Buxton	2:1 ET
11.01.25	Buxton - Chester	2:4
22.10.24	Chester - Buxton	0:1
29.03.24	Buxton - Chester	1:4
16.01.24	Chester - Buxton	0:1
29.04.23	Chester - Buxton	4:0

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