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Current Win Probability
Chicago Fire 63.3%
Draw 20.6%
Toronto FC 16.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
62.5%
19.8%
17.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.1%
15.2%
23%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chicago Fire has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)
Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (-15.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chicago Fire that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toronto FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
0%
33.3%
Chicago Fire - Toronto FC Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Chicago will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Toronto will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Chicago: 35.9% – 97.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Brady C. (G) 24. Dean J. 4. Mbokazi M. 3. Elliott J. (C) 15. Gutman A. 11. Zinckernagel P. 6. Saletros A. 22. Pineda M. 7. Haile-Selassie M. 17. Lod R. 9. Cuypers H.
1. Gavran L. (G) 78. Henry M. 19. Franklin K. 25. Zimmerman W. 15. Gomis N. 38. Gilman J. 11. Etienne D. 14. Coello A. 21. Osorio J. (C) 20. Salloi D. 9. Sargent J.
Substitutes
27. Borso D. 44. Cohen J. (G) 42. D'Avilla D. 12. Dithejane P. 8. Mueller C. 35. Oregel S. 14. Radojevic V. 20. Shokalook J. 16. Waterman J.
17. Aristizabal E. 7. Corbeanu T. 77. De Rosario A. (G) 44. Edwards R. 98. Kapor S. 12. Monlouis Z. 99. Vilsaint J. 23. Yarbrough W. (G)
Coaches
Berhalter G.
Fraser R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Henry M. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Lod R. ⚽, Haile-Selassie M. (A),
34', 1 - 1, Sargent J. ⚽, Coello A. (A),
40', Cuypers H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gomis N. ↓, Monlouis Z. ↑,
60', Gutman A. 🟨,
61', Pineda M. ↓, D'Avilla D. ↑,
61', Sargent J. ↓, Aristizabal E. ↑,
62', Mbokazi M. ↓, Waterman J. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Gutman A. ⚽, Zinckernagel P. (A),
74', Haile-Selassie M. ↓, Dithejane P. ↑,
74', Etienne D. ↓, Corbeanu T. ↑,
79', Zimmerman W. 🟨,
85', Henry M. ↓, Vilsaint J. ↑,
86', Gilman J. ↓, Edwards R. ↑,
87', Saletros A. 🟨,
90+1', Corbeanu T. 🟨,
90+1', Osorio J. 🟨,
90+1', Brady C. 🟨,
90+3', Zinckernagel P. ↓, Mueller C. ↑,
Preview
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 11).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chicago won 3.
In recent matches, Chicago has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Toronto has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Toronto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.
In this match, Chicago is the clear favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Chicago won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:35. (average 1.6:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Chicago won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.4:1.5).
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Brady C. (G) 
Mbokazi M. 
Elliott J. (C) 
Zinckernagel P. 
Saletros A. 
Haile-Selassie M. 
Lod R. 
Cuypers H. 
Gavran L. (G) 
Gomis N. 
Etienne D. 
Coello A. 
Salloi D. 
D'Avilla D. 
Radojevic V. 
Aristizabal E. 
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