Match Info

MLS

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: BMO Field (Toronto, ON)

Referee: Venne M. (Can)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	RDS App, RDS, TSN 3, TSN 4
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	Apple TV International


	Toronto FC		San Jose Earthquakes

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.8	1.86	Watch
	3.2	3.6	2.05
	3.7	3.7	1.95	Watch
	3.92	3.94	1.93
	3.93	3.9	1.85	Watch
	3.7	3.6	1.85
	3.8	3.91	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↑ (2.46)	3.78 ↑ (3.52)	1.92 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toronto FC
25.6%

Draw
25.1%

San Jose Earthquakes
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

26.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

27.2%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toronto FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toronto FC's form might have worsened.

San Jose Earthquakes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Jose Earthquakes's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toronto FC than the current prediction. (+13.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toronto FC, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Jose Earthquakes than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Jose Earthquakes, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	6.9%	82.8%

Toronto FC - San Jose Earthquakes Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Toronto will win (votes: 3 - 10.3%). San Jose will win (votes: 24 - 82.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 6.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Jose: 69.1% – 96.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. San Jose (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gavran L. (G) 19. Franklin K. 12. Monlouis Z. 76. Stefanovic L. 44. Edwards R. 14. Coello A. 71. Cimermancic M. 21. Osorio J. (C) 78. Henry M. 17. Aristizabal E. 20. Salloi D.	42. Daniel (G) 28. Kikanovic B. 5. Munie D. 18. Roberts R. 2. Ricketts J. 14. Vieira R. (C) 34. Leroux B. 7. Bouda O. 10. Tsakiris N. 16. Skahan J. 19. Judd P.
Substitutes
79. Bank F. 56. Bossenberry A. 73. Chisholm M. 77. De Rosario A. (G) 11. Etienne D. 29. Kerr D. 64. Nolan J. 23. Yarbrough W. (G) 25. Zimmerman W.	32. Adimabua N. 22. Crockford N. (G) 20. Fernandez N. 25. Floriani M. 40. Gonzalez Mendoza J. A. 6. Harkes I. 17. Jasinski J. 3. Marie P. 4. Romney D.
Coaches
Fraser R.	Arena B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Salloi D. ⚽, Osorio J. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Judd P. ⚽, Tsakiris N. (A),
17', Leroux B. 🟨,
37', Vieira R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Stefanovic L. ↓, Chisholm M. ↑,
56', Tsakiris N. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
68', Judd P. ↓, Marie P. ↑,
68', Skahan J. ↓, Harkes I. ↑,
70', Henry M. ↓, Etienne D. ↑,
70', Aristizabal E. ↓, Kerr D. ↑,
77', Osorio J. 🟨,
77', Cimermancic M. ↓, Bossenberry A. ↑,
90+1', Coello A. 🟨,
90+5', Monlouis Z. ↓, Zimmerman W. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 0.

Toronto has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

San Jose is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Toronto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Toronto has had a series of home games.

San Jose might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Toronto: Corbeanu T. (Knee Injury) Gomis N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Laryea R. (Injury) Matheus Pereira (Groin Injury) Mihailovic D. (Pelvis Injury) Wingo H. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in San Jose: Jones D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Vitor Costa (Lower-Body Injury)

There are questionable in Toronto: Kerr D. (Groin Injury) Nolan J. (Injury)

There are questionable in San Jose: Werner T. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Toronto won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Toronto won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toronto FC
MLS
25.04.26	Toronto FC - Atlanta United	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	3:3 ✺
18.04.26	Toronto FC - Austin FC	3:3 ✺
11.04.26	Toronto FC - Cincinnati	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Toronto FC - Colorado Rapids	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTTTW
- San Jose Earthquakes
US Open Cup
28.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Minnesota United	4:2 ✺
MLS
25.04.26	St. Louis City - San Jose Earthquakes	2:3 ✺
22.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Austin FC	5:1 ✺
19.04.26	Los Angeles - San Jose Earthquakes	1:4 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
25.03.23	San Jose Earthquakes - Toronto FC	0:0
09.07.22	Toronto FC - San Jose Earthquakes	2:2
29.02.20	San Jose Earthquakes - Toronto FC	2:2
26.05.19	Toronto FC - San Jose Earthquakes	1:2
18.08.18	San Jose Earthquakes - Toronto FC	1:1
09.09.17	Toronto FC - San Jose Earthquakes	4:0
16.07.16	San Jose Earthquakes - Toronto FC	2:1

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