Match Info

National League South - Round 10

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Chippenham Town		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	1.88
	3.55	3.45	1.92
	3.71	3.62	1.92
	3.35	3.56	2.02	Watch
	3.62	3.44	1.95
	3.5	3.45	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (2.99)	3.47 ↑ (3.39)	1.93 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chippenham Town
26.1%

Draw
26.4%

Hemel Hempstead Town
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

27.2%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

26.2%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chippenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hemel Hempstead Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chippenham Town than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-4%)

Chippenham Town - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Matthews Lewis M. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chippenham won 2.

In recent matches, Chippenham has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hemel Hempstead is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Chippenham has had a series of away games.

Hemel Hempstead could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Chippenham won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:32. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Chippenham won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:18. (average 1.4:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chippenham Town
English FA Cup
27.09.25	Walton & Hersham - Chippenham Town	0:2 ✺
English National League South
20.09.25	Enfield Town - Chippenham Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Gloucester City - Chippenham Town	1:2 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Chippenham Town - Hampton & Richmond Borough	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Slough Town - Chippenham Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWTL
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English FA Cup
30.09.25	Hereford - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:3 ✺
English National League South
20.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnborough	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bishops Stortford	4:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Eastbourne Borough - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0 ✺
02.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Ebbsfleet United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
08.02.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chippenham Town	4:2
19.10.24	Chippenham Town - Hemel Hempstead Town	3:0
06.01.24	Chippenham Town - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:3
05.12.23	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chippenham Town	0:2
21.02.23	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chippenham Town	1:1
25.10.22	Chippenham Town - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1
18.12.21	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chippenham Town	0:2

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