Match Info

National League South - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday


	Hemel Hempstead Town		Farnborough

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.45	3.2
	2.02	3.55	3.49
	1.34	4.51	9.38	Watch
	2.09	3.4	3.23
	2.37	3.35	2.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.38)	3.65 ↑ (3.4)	4.39 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hemel Hempstead Town
50.3%

Draw
27.2%

Farnborough
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

27%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

26.8%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hemel Hempstead Town's performance.

Farnborough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Farnborough might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hemel Hempstead Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farnborough than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Farnborough could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnborough Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Matthews Lewis M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Hemel Hempstead might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Hemel Hempstead won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.64%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hemel Hempstead Town
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bishops Stortford	4:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Eastbourne Borough - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0 ✺
02.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Ebbsfleet United	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Torquay United	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Dagenham & Redbridge - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTTWL
- Farnborough
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	4:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Farnborough - Dover Athletic	1:2 ✺
01.09.25	Chelmsford City - Farnborough	2:5 ✺
30.08.25	Tonbridge Angels - Farnborough	3:3 ✺
25.08.25	Farnborough - Weston-super-Mare	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
18.01.25	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1
21.09.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnborough	3:3
23.01.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnborough	2:1
15.08.23	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:1
31.01.23	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2
06.08.22	Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnborough	1:0
14.02.15	Farnborough - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:2

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