Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Edgar Street (Hereford)


	Hereford		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	2.75
	2.28	3.35	2.82
	2.31	3.27	2.76
	2.31	3.34	2.86	Watch
	2.22	3.5	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.24)	3.37 ↓ (3.48)	2.8 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hereford
40.3%

Draw
27.1%

Hemel Hempstead Town
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

26.4%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

25.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hereford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hereford than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Hereford - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
53', 0 - 1, Matthews Lewis M. ⚽,
90+2', 0 - 2, Wilkinson F. ⚽,
90+5', 0 - 3, Williams G. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-2. Replay (1st match was draw).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Hemel Hempstead may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hemel Hempstead has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Hereford - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 40.98%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hereford FC
English FA Cup
23.09.25	Sporting Khalsa - Hereford	2:3 ✺
English National League North
20.09.25	Hereford - Worksop Town	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Darlington - Hereford	1:1 ✺
02.09.25	Hereford - Bedford Town	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Hereford - Alfreton Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTTW
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
20.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Farnborough	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Bishops Stortford	4:1 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Eastbourne Borough - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:0 ✺
02.09.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Ebbsfleet United	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Torquay United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWTTW

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