Match Info

Liga MX Women - Clausura - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, FOX One
Usa	FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, NBC Universo


	Chivas Guadalajara		Pachuca

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.5	2
	2.98	3.5	2.05
	3.19	3.47	2.18
	3.23	3.32	2.18	Watch
	2.8	3.4	2.1
	2.99	3.62	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↓ (3.91)	3.47 ↓ (3.84)	2.09 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chivas Guadalajara
30.2%

Draw
26.3%

Pachuca
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

23.7%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.8%

23.3%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chivas Guadalajara's performance.

Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pachuca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chivas Guadalajara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pachuca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chivas Guadalajara - Pachuca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Felix Castro B. M. (C) 23. Casarez J. A. 24. Cervantes A. 5. Ferral C. 11. Franco Y. 3. Godinez D. 16. Gonzalez E. 10. Iturbide A. 21. Lopez S. 9. Valenzuela G. 17. Villarreal N.	1. Barreras E. (G) 25. Aline Gomes 9. Corral V. (C) 26. Garcia Ramirez M. P. 45. Ibarra B. 8. Minota Y. 10. Nicosia N. 6. Nieto K. 3. Ohale O. 19. Pereira A. 2. Robles K.
Substitutes
34. Aguirre Z. (G) 22. Castro D. 14. De La Rosa J. 15. Esquivias I. 8. Jaramillo C. 7. Montero C. 25. Montoya J. 13. Pelayo M. 2. Rodriguez D. 30. Salazar E.	15. Caicedo K. 23. Flores D. 48. Fragoso Garcia A. A. 13. Godinez A. 22. Lopes C. (G) 14. Mauleon M. 28. Valadez Alvidrez J. Y. 33. Valera S. 21. Vance M.
Coaches
Contreras A.	Torres O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Cervantes A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Nicosia N. ↓, Vance M. ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Casarez J. A. ⚽,
67', Casarez J. A. ↓, Jaramillo C. ↑,
67', Godinez D. ↓, Montero C. ↑,
67', Nieto K. ↓, Fragoso Garcia A. A. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Pereira A. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Iturbide A. ↓, Castro D. ↑,
89', Garcia Ramirez M. P. ↓, Valadez Alvidrez J. Y. ↑,
90', Cervantes A. ↓, Salazar E. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX Women (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 0.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Pachuca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Pachuca is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 31:29. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.8:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chivas Guadalajara Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
24.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	1:1 ✺
20.04.26	Juárez - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Tigres UANL - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
02.04.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTTWT
- CF Pachuca Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
24.04.26	Club America - Pachuca	3:2 ✺
05.04.26	Pachuca - Club León	5:4 ✺
02.04.26	Santos Laguna - Pachuca	1:2 ✺
27.03.26	Pachuca - Monterrey	0:1 ✺
22.03.26	UNAM - Pachuca	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
15.03.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Pachuca	1:1
19.10.25	Pachuca - Chivas Guadalajara	2:1
13.04.25	Pachuca - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0
22.09.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Pachuca	3:3
21.04.24	Pachuca - Chivas Guadalajara	3:0
03.11.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Pachuca	3:0
21.05.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Pachuca	1:3

Chivas Guadalajara - Pachuca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide