Match Info

Division 1 - Round 33

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Chrobrego (Głogów)

Referee: Lezny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Chrobry Głogów		Znicz Pruszków

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	3.7
	1.98	3.4	3.55	Watch
	1.95	3.96	3.89
	1.94	3.79	3.43	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.4
	1.81	3.62	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.05)	3.57 ↑ (3.46)	3.61 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chrobry Głogów
48.3%

Draw
26%

Znicz Pruszków
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26.7%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

23.5%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chrobry Głogów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Znicz Pruszków has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chrobry Głogów than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chrobry Głogów that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Znicz Pruszków than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Znicz Pruszków could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Chrobry Głogów - Znicz Pruszków Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Chrobry (1.16) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +1.5 - Znicz (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Chrobry (2.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Chrobry (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chrobry Głogów will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chrobry Głogów will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Chrobry (votes: 7 - 70%). Znicz (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Arndt D. (G) 28. Lis J. 18. Mazur M. 8. Gric J. 21. Kozajda M. 80. Tabis K. 17. Ibe-Torti K. 23. Lewkot S. 16. Mandrysz R. (C) 30. Bartlewicz S. 10. Janczukowicz P.	23. Napieraj K. (G) 99. Koprowski O. 5. Jach J. 25. Konieczny D. 7. Sokol D. 10. Ciepiela B. 20. Borecki M. 22. Tabara K. 11. Moskwik P. (C) 17. Kazimierczak A. 9. Majewski R.
Substitutes
5. Bak R. 7. Bonecki S. 27. Laskowski K. 95. Lenarcik P. (G) 15. Nowakowski K. 9. Ozimek M. 11. Strozik S. 29. Tupaj P. 44. Zarowny A.	29. Bak D. 21. Mak M. 12. Misztal P. (G) 53. Nadolski A. 14. Okhronchuk V. 8. Proczek T. 30. Yuzvak A.
Coaches
Becella L.	Smolarow L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Mazur M. 🟨,
22', 0 - 1, Majewski R. (Penalty Awarded),
25', Lewkot S. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 1, Mazur M. ⚽, Bartlewicz S. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Lewkot S. ↓, Bonecki S. ↑,
46', Tabis K. ↓, Laskowski K. ↑,
46', Janczukowicz P. ↓, Strozik S. ↑,
47', Konieczny D. 🟨,
49', 1 - 2, Tabara K. ⚽,
63', Bartlewicz S. ↓, Nowakowski K. ↑,
71', Moskwik P. 🟨,
71', Kazimierczak A. ↓, Bak D. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Ibe-Torti K. ⚽, Mandrysz R. (A),
79', 3 - 2, Strozik S. ⚽, Laskowski K. (A),
80', 🟨,
85', Moskwik P. ↓, Mak M. ↑,
85', Ciepiela B. ↓, Yuzvak A. ↑,
87', Ibe-Torti K. ↓, Bak R. ↑,
90+6', Majewski R. ↓, Proczek T. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Znicz is Relegated to Division 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chrobry won 4.

Recent performances by Chrobry have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Znicz is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Chrobry may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chrobry is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chrobry won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Chrobry won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Pruszkow: 11.59% Chrobry Glogow: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Chrobry Glogow	9	3	3	3	11:8	3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chrobry Głogów
Polish Division 1
08.05.26	Wisła Kraków - Chrobry Głogów	2:0 ✺
03.05.26	Chrobry Głogów - GKS Tychy	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Polonia Warsaw - Chrobry Głogów	1:0 ✺
17.04.26	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Górnik Łęczna - Chrobry Głogów	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWLWL
- Znicz Pruszków
Polish Division 1
09.05.26	Znicz Pruszków - Polonia Bytom	1:4 ✺
01.05.26	Puszcza Niepołomice - Znicz Pruszków	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Znicz Pruszków - Górnik Łęczna	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Znicz Pruszków	2:2 ✺
12.04.26	Znicz Pruszków - Miedź Legnica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
07.11.25	Znicz Pruszków - Chrobry Głogów	0:2
04.04.25	Chrobry Głogów - Znicz Pruszków	3:2
16.09.24	Znicz Pruszków - Chrobry Głogów	2:3
05.05.24	Znicz Pruszków - Chrobry Głogów	1:1
06.11.23	Chrobry Głogów - Znicz Pruszków	1:0
04.03.17	Chrobry Głogów - Znicz Pruszków	1:1
12.08.16	Znicz Pruszków - Chrobry Głogów	0:0

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