Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Città di Fasano		Gravina

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.35	2.92
	2.18	3.42	2.93	Watch
	2.17	3.4	2.99
	2.1	3.25	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.18)	3.36 ↑ (3.35)	2.94 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Città di Fasano
42.2%

Draw
27%

Gravina
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

26.8%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

25.7%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Città di Fasano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Gravina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Città di Fasano than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gravina than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Città di Fasano - Gravina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
55', 2 - 0, ⚽,
61', 3 - 0, ⚽,
73', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: ) and 13 in the zone Serie D ~ Group H (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fasano won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Fasano might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Fasano won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:17. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Fasano won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:5. (average 1.8:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Gravina	6	3	2	1	12:7	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Città di Fasano
Italian Serie D - Group H
04.01.26	Afragolese - Città di Fasano	2:3 ✺
21.12.25	Paganese - Città di Fasano	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Città di Fasano - Real Normanna	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Martina Calcio - Città di Fasano	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	Città di Fasano - Barletta	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WTLLT
- FBC Gravina
Italian Serie D - Group H
04.01.26	Gravina - Nola	0:2 ✺
21.12.25	Real Normanna - Gravina	3:2 ✺
14.12.25	Gravina - Afragolese	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Paganese - Gravina	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Gravina - Ferrandina	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia Serie D
08.10.25	Città di Fasano - Gravina	3:0
Italian Serie D - Group H
19.01.25	Gravina - Città di Fasano	1:2
22.09.24	Città di Fasano - Gravina	0:2
17.03.24	Città di Fasano - Gravina	1:0
05.11.23	Gravina - Città di Fasano	4:1
26.02.23	Gravina - Città di Fasano	0:0
23.10.22	Città di Fasano - Gravina	3:0

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