Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 7

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato (Cittadella)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Cittadella		Pro Patria

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.6	3.6	5.3
	1.59	3.77	5.87
	1.67	3.51	5.19	Watch
	1.63	3.56	5.76	Watch
	1.69	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.7)	3.61 ↑ (3.38)	5.32 ↑ (4.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cittadella
56.8%

Draw
25.8%

Pro Patria
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

27.1%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

21.1%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cittadella has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Pro Patria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cittadella that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pro Patria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cittadella - Pro Patria Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cittadella (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Cittadella will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Zanellati A. (G) 30. De Zen R. 44. Gatti R. 28. Rizza A. 55. Redolfi A. 8. Amatucci F. 26. Pavan N. (C) 90. Bunino C. 77. Ignatov E. 10. Casolari F. 9. Diaw D.	1. Rovida W. (G) 20. Mora C. 26. Masi A. 39. Motolese M. 27. Giudici L. 25. Ferri D. 5. Di Munno A. 14. Citterio G. 93. Dimarco C. 11. Renelus B. 9. Udoh K.
Substitutes
5. Barberis A. 99. Castelli D. 25. Cecchetto A. 14. Crialese C. 19. D'Alessio F. 11. Desogus J. 23. Egharevba D. 17. Gaddini M. 1. Maniero L. (G) 21. Rabbi S. 2. Salvi A. 22. Scquizzato E. (G) 15. Verna L. 16. Vita A.	13. Aliata T. 15. Auci A. 80. Bagatti N. 12. Gnonto R. (G) 24. Marra A. 10. Mastroianni F. 7. Orfei A. 4. Reggiori P. 8. Schiavone A. 40. Schiro T. 19. Travaglini C. 6. Viti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Casolari F. ↓, Barberis A. ↑,
23', Pavan N. ↓, Salvi A. ↑,
33', Ignatov E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Diaw D. 🟨,
50', Renelus B. 🟨,
61', Renelus B. ↓, Orfei A. ↑,
62', Diaw D. ↓, Castelli D. ↑,
70', Udoh K. ↓, Mastroianni F. ↑,
70', Citterio G. ↓, Schiro T. ↑,
78', Ignatov E. ↓, Desogus J. ↑,
78', Bunino C. ↓, Gaddini M. ↑,
90+1', De Zen R. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Cittadella may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cittadella is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cittadella won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Cittadella won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie C Group A
25.09.25	Cittadella - Lumezzane	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	AlbinoLeffe - Cittadella	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Cittadella - Vicenza Virtus	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Pergolettese - Cittadella	3:1 ✺
29.08.25	Cittadella - Alcione	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
25.09.25	Pro Patria - AlbinoLeffe	0:3 ✺
21.09.25	Vicenza Virtus - Pro Patria	3:0 ✺
14.09.25	Pro Patria - Novara	0:0 ✺
07.09.25	Giana Erminio - Pro Patria	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Inter U23 - Pro Patria	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
23.01.16	Cittadella - Pro Patria	2:1
14.10.15	Pro Patria - Cittadella	1:3

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