Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 13

Date: 6 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Zorros del Desierto (Calama)


	Cobreloa		Santiago Morning

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.9	5
	1.52	3.9	5.7
	1.52	3.95	6.26
				Watch
	1.57	3.7	5
	1.54	4	5.46	Watch
	1.58	4.15	4.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.59)	3.93 ↓ (4)	5.35 ↑ (4.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cobreloa
59.5%

Draw
23.3%

Santiago Morning
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.3%

22.8%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

23.5%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cobreloa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Santiago Morning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cobreloa than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	30%	10%

Cobreloa - Santiago Morning Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Cobreloa will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Santiago Morning will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cobreloa: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Cobreloa (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Araya Tobar H. E. (G) 35. Bustamante B. 5. Gonzalez R. (C) 7. Gotti G. 33. Heredia A. 30. Ledezma I. 21. Muga C. 23. Navarrete G. 16. Romero P. 17. Tapia D. 15. Valdes A.	12. Canete L. (G) 10. Campillay K. 17. Castro P. 9. Cid W. 15. Cortes F. 25. Estay D. 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 4. Iturra M. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. (C) 2. Santelices G. 14. Vasquez K.
Substitutes
25. Acevedo D. 24. Garcia L. 18. Melendez J. 14. Rojas G. 31. Salazar A. (G) 4. Tapia B. 11. Verhoeven E.	28. Alvarez D. 1. Arana A. (G) 7. Arancibia M. 27. Coronado M. 23. Delgado M. 5. Gatica M. 8. Salazar S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', 🟨,
23', 🟨,
24', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 🟨,
49', 🟨,
85', 🟨,
86', 0 - 1, Verhoeven E. (Own goal),
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 3.

Cobreloa is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santiago Morning has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Santiago Morning may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cobreloa is the team to beat.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cobreloa won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:18. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cobreloa won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:13. (average 2.2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cobreloa
Chilean Cup
01.07.25	Deportes Limache - Cobreloa	3:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.06.25	Cobreloa - Curicó Unido	3:2 ✺
14.06.25	Santiago Wanderers - Cobreloa	5:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
08.06.25	Cobreloa - Deportes Limache	1:3 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.05.25	Deportes Temuco - Cobreloa	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
21.06.25	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
01.06.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Magallanes	0:0 ✺
25.05.25	Santiago Wanderers - Santiago Morning	2:3 ✺
18.05.25	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Morning	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
13.09.23	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	2:1
17.04.23	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	0:2
01.11.22	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	2:2
Chilean Cup
20.08.22	Cobreloa - Santiago Morning	1:0
16.08.22	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	0:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
28.05.22	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	0:1
22.09.21	Santiago Morning - Cobreloa	2:1

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