Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 15

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Lucio Fariña Fernández (Quillota)


	San Luis de Quillota		Santiago Morning

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.3	3.7
	1.95	3.39	3.78
				Watch
	1.85	3.2	4
	1.95	3.34	3.71
	1.65	3.5	5.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.62)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	4.18 ↓ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Luis de Quillota
50.2%

Draw
27.7%

Santiago Morning
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.1%

26%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

25%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Luis de Quillota has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Luis de Quillota's form might have worsened.

Santiago Morning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Luis de Quillota than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. San Luis will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Santiago Morning will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. San Luis (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Santiago Morning (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. San Luis (votes: 1 - 50%). Santiago Morning (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Retamal D. (G) 13. Munoz Alister N. 6. Vergara C. 3. Sarria G. 27. Aguila Bastias Y. M. 16. Rodriguez A. 19. Novero G. 21. Araya J. 7. Juarez F. 9. Carreno M. 11. Parada S. (C)	12. Canete L. (G) 14. Vasquez K. 2. Santelices G. 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 25. Estay D. 20. Ormeno E. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. (C) 4. Iturra M. 10. Campillay K. 15. Cortes F. 30. Barrientos J.
Substitutes
18. Avello G. 22. Bustos G. 8. Cabrera Figueroa L. 12. Garcia M. (G) 2. Navarrete J. 4. Osorio R. 14. Pastenes F.	28. Alvarez D. 1. Arana A. (G) 17. Castro P. 27. Coronado M. 23. Delgado M. 24. Massaccesi L. 8. Salazar S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Estay D. 🟨,
29', Parada S. 🟨,
41', Cortes F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Retamal D. 🟨,
56', Barrientos J. 🟨,
63', Barrientos J. ↓, Coronado M. ↑,
75', Manriquez Hernandez F. ↓, Castro P. ↑,
81', Araya J. ↓, Pastenes F. ↑,
83', Estay D. ↓, Delgado M. ↑,
90+4', Santelices G. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Luis won 1.

San Luis is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santiago Morning has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, San Luis has had a series of away games.

In this match, San Luis is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Luis won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 5:13. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, San Luis won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Luis de Quillota
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
16.06.25	Deportes Copiapó - San Luis de Quillota	3:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
06.06.25	San Luis de Quillota - Deportes La Serena	3:1 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
30.05.25	Deportes Recoleta - San Luis de Quillota	3:1 ✺
23.05.25	San Marcos de Arica - San Luis de Quillota	2:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
20.05.25	Unión La Calera - San Luis de Quillota	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLLT
- Santiago Morning
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
15.06.25	Santiago Morning - Unión San Felipe	2:1 ✺
01.06.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Magallanes	0:0 ✺
25.05.25	Santiago Wanderers - Santiago Morning	2:3 ✺
18.05.25	Universidad de Concepción - Santiago Morning	5:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
09.05.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Magallanes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
21.07.24	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning	1:3
01.03.24	Santiago Morning - San Luis de Quillota	4:0
02.08.23	Santiago Morning - San Luis de Quillota	1:0
21.02.23	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning	1:0
01.08.22	Santiago Morning - San Luis de Quillota	1:0
16.03.22	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning	1:2
20.10.21	San Luis de Quillota - Santiago Morning	2:2

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