Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 3 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental David Arellano (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 3


	Colo-Colo		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.9	3.25	4.2
	1.9	3.3	4.3	Watch
	1.93	3.41	4.54
	1.89	3.41	4.54
	1.83	3.3	4	Watch
	1.92	3.42	4.2	Watch
	1.89	3.25	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.66)	3.33 ↓ (3.67)	4.27 ↓ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colo-Colo
49.7%

Draw
28.2%

Cerro Porteño
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

25.5%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.8%

17.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colo-Colo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Colo-Colo's form might have worsened.

Cerro Porteño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colo-Colo than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Colo-Colo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Colo Colo - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Colo-Colo will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Colo-Colo: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cortes B. (G) 16. Opazo Lara O. 4. Saldivia A. 37. Falcon M. 21. Wiemberg E. 23. Vidal A. 8. Pavez E. (C) 5. Gil L. 14. Zavala C. 29. Paiva G. 7. Carlos Palacios	13. Jean (G) 7. Gimenez E. 18. Valdez B. 4. Eduardo Brock 21. Arzamendia S. (C) 33. Peralta F. 5. Morel J. 26. Piris R. 11. Iturbe J. 9. Edu 10. Dominguez C.
Substitutes
15. Amor E. 22. Benegas L. 11. Bolados M. 19. Castellani G. 32. Cepeda L. 30. De Paul F. (G) 13. Gutierrez B. 3. Gutierrez D. 9. Pizarro D. 34. Pizarro V. 2. Rojas J. 28. Soto L.	17. Aguayo G. 24. Baez C. 34. Benitez M. 32. Cabanas V. 6. Carrascal R. 8. Carrizo F. 35. De Jesus R. 40. Fernandez F. 1. Martin A. (G) 23. Oviedo A. 27. Riveros L. 20. Viera W.
Coaches
Almiron J.	Jimenez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Peralta F. 🟨,
31', Valdez B. ↓, Baez C. ↑,
38', Gimenez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vidal A. 🟨,
59', Falcon M. ↓, Amor E. ↑,
59', Zavala C. ↓, Bolados M. ↑,
62', Iturbe J. ↓, Viera W. ↑,
62', Peralta F. ↓, Carrizo F. ↑,
63', Dominguez C. ↓, Riveros L. ↑,
74', Edu ↓, Oviedo A. ↑,
85', Vidal A. ↓, Cepeda L. ↑,
88', Paiva G. ↓, Pizarro D. ↑,
90+2', Arzamendia S. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 0, Cepeda L. ⚽, Carlos Palacios (A),
90+7', Morel J. 🟨,
90+7', Gil L. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Colo-Colo is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colo-Colo
Chilean Primera Division
30.03.24	Colo-Colo - Everton de Viña	4:1 ✺
17.03.24	Coquimbo Unido - Colo-Colo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.03.24	Colo-Colo - Sportivo Trinidense	2:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
10.03.24	Colo-Colo - Universidad de Chile	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.03.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Colo-Colo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WTWLT
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
30.03.24	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
15.03.24	Sportivo Luqueño - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
09.03.24	Cerro Porteño - Tacuary	0:1 ✺
01.03.24	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
24.02.24	Cerro Porteño - Sol de América	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWLTT

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