Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 16

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo da Bela Vista (Setúbal)


	Comércio e Indústria		Serpa

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.05	2
	3.28	3.3	1.99
	3.35	3.35	2.02	Watch
	3.6	2.9	1.95
	3.37	3.26	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3)	3.17 ↓ (3.25)	1.99 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comércio e Indústria
26.4%

Draw
28.4%

Serpa
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

27.5%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

26.8%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comércio e Indústria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Serpa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comércio e Indústria than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Comércio e Indústria - Serpa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
64', 1 - 1, ⚽,
68', 🟥,
79', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 6).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Serpa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Comércio Indústria won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Comércio Indústria won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Serpa	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comércio e Indústria
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.01.26	Alcochetense - Comércio e Indústria	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Comércio e Indústria - Oriental	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Comércio e Indústria - Alverca B	2:2 ✺
14.12.25	Elvas - Comércio e Indústria	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Comércio e Indústria - Juventude de Évora	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTTLL
- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Serpa - Alcochetense	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Serpa - Oriental	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Alverca B - Serpa	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Serpa - Elvas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
24.08.25	Serpa - Comércio e Indústria	3:0
09.03.25	Serpa - Comércio e Indústria	1:1
10.11.24	Comércio e Indústria - Serpa	0:1

Comércio e Indústria - Serpa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide