Match Info

Serie B - Round 15

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping


	Fortaleza		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.78	3.30	4.20
	1.85	3.25	4.15	Watch
	1.98	3.45	4.48
	1.86	3.19	4.71	Watch
	1.89	3.3	4.4
	1.86	3.29	4.4	Watch
	1.88	3.3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.04)	3.3 ↑ (3.05)	4.34 ↑ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
50.1%

Draw
28.4%

Sport Recife
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

30.6%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

30%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Fortaleza - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Recife will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 13. Mauricio Junior 2. Britez E. (C) 4. Luan Freitas 18. Fuentes G. 88. Lucas Sasha 5. Pierre 29. Rodrigo 11. Vitinho 9. Miritello J. B. 32. Luiz Fernando	26. Thiago Couto (G) 13. Madson 5. Benevenuto (C) 4. Ze Marcos 60. Felipinho 47. Fabio Matheus 58. Ze Lucas 30. Chrystian Barletta 6. Biel Fonseca 95. Iury Castilho 9. Pedro Perotti
Substitutes
33. Kaua Rocha 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 3. Lucas Gazal 38. Lucca Prior 15. Magrao (G) 22. Mailton 77. Paulo Baya 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	75. Arthur Maron 68. Augusto 25. Clayson 96. Edson Lucas 11. Gustavo Maia 1. Halls (G) 3. Marcelo Ajul 31. Marlon Douglas 48. Pedro Martins 7. Yago Felipe 23. Ze Gabriel
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Azevedo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Rodrigo ⚽, Luan Freitas (A),
45', Ze Lucas ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', Vitinho 🟨,
58', Felipinho 🟨,
58', Miritello J. B. 🟨,
58', Benevenuto 🟨,
62', Vitinho ↓, Welliton ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Pedro Perotti ⚽,
73', Rodrigo ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
73', Lucas Sasha ↓, Ryan ↑,
73', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
76', Biel Fonseca ↓, Ze Gabriel ↑,
76', Chrystian Barletta ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
83', Britez E. ↓, Lucas Gazal ↑,
83', Pierre ↓, Lucca Prior ↑,
86', Iury Castilho ↓, Clayson ↑,
86', Fabio Matheus ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Welliton ⚽, Miritello J. B. (A),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 8 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.

Fortaleza is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Recife's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Recife has had a series of home games.

In this match, Fortaleza is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Britez E. (Inactive) Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Rodriguinho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Recife: Clayson (Injury) de Pena Carlos (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Ankle Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:10. (average 1.2:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:3. (average 1.2:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.79%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
21.06.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
16.06.26	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	0:3 ✺
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.06.26	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
02.06.26	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLWLL
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
18.06.26	Sport Recife - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	São Bernardo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
10.06.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2
20.05.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:2
29.04.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
27.09.25	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:0
26.04.25	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.02.25	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2
26.05.24	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	1:4

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