Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 19

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Confiança		Retrô Brasil

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.43	3.9	6.5
	1.28	4.35	9.8
	1.3	4.85	12.51
	1.55	3.3	6
	1.37	4.67	8.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.57)	4.21 ↑ (3.63)	8.58 ↑ (5.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
67.1%

Draw
22.1%

Retrô Brasil
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.1%

25.1%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

23.6%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Confiança's performance.

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Retrô Brasil might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Confiança that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Retrô Brasil could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Confiança - Retrô Brasil Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Confiança will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Retrô will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Felipe Scheibig (G) 10. Breiner C. 8. Dionisio 5. Luiz Otavio 11. Maicon 9. Neto Oliveira 13. Renilson 7. Ronald Camarao 14. Valdo 6. Vicente 2. Weriton	12. Fabian Volpi (G) 9. Bruno Marques 2. Danillo 25. Eduardo 20. Esquerdinha 7. Fabinho 14. Felipe Ferreira 28. Lucas Grafite 30. Luquinhas 8. Ly I. 27. Mike
Substitutes
. Allan (G) . Fabricio Pereira . Guilherme Teixeira . Jhon Cley . Lenon . Maikon Aquino . Matheusinho . Rafinha . Renan . Thiago . Thiago Santos . Vitinho	. Darley (G) . David Lucas (G) . Felipao . Felipe E. . Franco R. . Joabe . Karele . Murilo Cosmo . Rodriguez P.
Coaches
Luizinho Vieira	Andrade de Brito J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Ly I. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Luiz Otavio ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Luquinhas ↓, Jhonnatam ↑,
46', Ly I. ↓, Murilo Cosmo ↑,
55', Maicon ↓, Rafinha ↑,
63', 🟨,
70', Dionisio ↓, Thiago ↑,
70', Breiner C. ↓, Renan ↑,
72', Bruno Marques ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
72', Lucas Grafite ↓, Karele ↑,
72', Fabinho ↓, Franco R. ↑,
78', Neto Oliveira ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
78', Weriton ↓, Lenon ↑,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Confiança is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Retrô is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Confiança may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Confiança is the obvious favorite.

We predict that Confiança will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Confiança won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Confiança won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
25.08.25	Guarani - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	CS Alagoano - Confiança	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
17.08.25	Confiança - Floresta	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Ituano - Confiança	1:2 ✺
04.08.25	Confiança - Anápolis	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.5 LWWWW
- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Serie C
24.08.25	Retrô Brasil - ABC	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Maringá - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Retrô Brasil - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Retrô Brasil - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.01.24	Confiança - Retrô Brasil	1:2 penalties

Confiança - Retrô Brasil: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide