Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena Pernambuco (São Lourenço da Mata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Retrô Brasil		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.95	2.75	2.35
	3.2	2.78	2.28	Watch
	3.7	2.99	2.38
	3	2.7	2.45
	3.29	2.88	2.24	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↑ (2.95)	2.83 ↓ (2.9)	2.38 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Retrô Brasil
28.9%

Draw
32.4%

São Bernardo
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

31.6%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

30.9%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Retrô Brasil - São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Fabian Volpi (G) 16. Danillo 17. Diego Guerra 18. Franco R. 6. Gustavo Salomao 26. Ly I. 9. Mascote 8. Radsley 4. Rayan Ribeiro 15. Rayne Assis 99. Vagner Love	12. Junior Oliveira (G) 32. Bastos R. 26. Dudu Miraima 11. Felipe Azevedo 3. Helder Maciel (C) 21. Hugo Sanches 28. Joao Paulo 95. Para 59. Pedro Felipe 4. Rafael Forster 17. Romisson
Substitutes
22. Bruno Marques 1. Darley (G) 25. Eduardo 14. Felipe Ferreira 10. Fernandinho 20. Gledson 28. Joao Lucas 19. Luquinhas 29. Mendonca 27. Mike 3. Robson Reis 5. Romulo	44. Caio Garcez 7. Echapora 20. Emerson Santos 90. Felipe Garcia 22. Leo Duarte 8. Lucas Buchecha 70. Lucas Reis 13. Matheus Salustiano 84. Vanderlei (G) 31. Victor Andrade
Coaches
Schulle I.	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2', Romisson 🟨,
30', Ly I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ly I. ↓, Felipe Ferreira ↑,
46', Diego Guerra ↓, Joao Lucas ↑,
46', Gustavo Salomao ↓, Gledson ↑,
49', Rayne Assis ↓, Mendonca ↑,
57', Felipe Azevedo ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
66', Mendonca 🟨,
69', Pedro Felipe ↓, Echapora ↑,
69', Bastos R. ↓, Felipe Garcia ↑,
78', Dudu Miraima ↓, Emerson Santos ↑,
78', Joao Paulo ↓, Lucas Buchecha ↑,
85', 🟨,
86', Rayan Ribeiro 🟨,
87', 🟨,
89', Franco R. 🟨,
90+1', 0 - 1, Echapora ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Recent performances by Retrô have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Bernardo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

São Bernardo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Retrô Brasil - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 31.04%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Retrô Brasil
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Retrô Brasil - Bahia	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
03.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.07.25	Bahia - Retrô Brasil	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.07.25	Retrô Brasil - Ypiranga	0:0 ✺
20.07.25	Brusque - Retrô Brasil	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TLLTW
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
03.08.25	São Bernardo - Tombense	2:0 ✺
27.07.25	São Bernardo - Confiança	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Ypiranga - São Bernardo	0:2 ✺
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Botafogo PB - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WTWWT

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