Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 3 October 2024, Thursday

Location: Parken Stadium (Copenhagen)

Referee: Harvey R. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport 6
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 12
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 4
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 14, M+ Liga de Campeones 1, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 12
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Copenhagen		Jagiellonia Białystok

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.5	9.5
	1.27	5.75	8.25
	1.3	5.5	9.5
	1.28	5.83	9.71
	1.28	5.98	8.39	Watch
	1.44	4.33	6
	1.3	6.11	9.45
	1.3	5.5	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.55)	5.56 ↑ (4.22)	8.79 ↑ (5.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Copenhagen
72.3%

Draw
17%

Jagiellonia Białystok
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

22%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.5%

21.5%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Copenhagen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Copenhagen's performance.

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jagiellonia Białystok might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Copenhagen than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Copenhagen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jagiellonia Białystok could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	4.8%	4.8%

Copenhagen - Jagiellonia Białystok Predictions

Users Predictions: Copenhagen will win (38 of 42 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.6% – 99.36%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trott N. (G) 22. Gocholeishvili G. 6. Hatzidiakos P. 2. Diks K. 15. Lopez M. 12. Lerager L. 27. Delaney T. 10. Elyounoussi M. 8. Mattsson M. 30. Achouri E. 7. Claesson V. (C)	50. Abramowicz S. (G) 16. Sacek M. 3. Stojinovic D. 17. Dieguez A. 44. Moutinho J. 20. Villar Miki 29. Listkowski M. 39. Nguiamba A. 99. Hansen K. 10. Pululu A. 11. Imaz J. (C)
Substitutes
19. Chiakha A. 36. Clem W. 14. Cornelius A. 17. Froholdt V. 5. Gabriel Pereira 38. Hojer O. 13. Huescas R. 9. Onugkha G. 16. Robert 31. Runarsson R. A. (G) 21. Sander T. (G)	21. Churlinov D. 82. Costa Silva T. 4. Haliti J. 22. Kovacik P. 14. Kubicki J. 66. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 6. Romanczuk T. 51. Rybak A. 72. Skrzypczak M. 1. Stryjek M. (G)
Coaches
Neestrup J.	Siemieniec A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Hatzidiakos P. ⚽, Lopez M. (A),
26', Lopez M. 🟨,
37', Delaney T. ↓, Froholdt V. ↑,
40', Hansen K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Imaz J. ↓, Romanczuk T. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Pululu A. ⚽, Moutinho J. (A),
54', Nguiamba A. 🟨,
55', Hansen K. ↓, Churlinov D. ↑,
55', Listkowski M. ↓, Costa Silva T. ↑,
63', Villar Miki ↓, Kovacik P. ↑,
66', Sacek M. 🟨,
69', Mattsson M. ↓, Cornelius A. ↑,
78', Costa Silva T. 🟨,
79', Cornelius A. 🟨,
85', Nguiamba A. ↓, Kubicki J. ↑,
86', Abramowicz S. 🟨,
86', Claesson V. ↓, Onugkha G. ↑,
86', Achouri E. ↓, Hojer O. ↑,
90+8', 1 - 2, Churlinov D. ⚽, Pululu A. (A),

Preview

Recent matches Copenhagen is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Jagiellonia is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Jagiellonia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Copenhagen is certain favorite.

There will not play in Copenhagen: Bardghji R. (Knee Injury) Boilesen N. (Knee Injury) Falk R. (Knee Injury) Garananga M. (Injury) Larsson J. (Injury) Meling B. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Churlinov D. (Injury) Nene (Injury) Wojdakowski D. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Copenhagen
Danish Superliga
29.09.24	Vejle Boldklub Kolding - Copenhagen	1:2 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
26.09.24	HB Køge - Copenhagen	0:2 ✺
Danish Superliga
23.09.24	Copenhagen - Aalborg BK	2:0 ✺
14.09.24	Midtjylland - Copenhagen	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.24	Copenhagen - Landskrona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WWWLL
- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.09.24	Piast Gliwice - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ✺
25.09.24	Motor Lublin - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2 ✺
21.09.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lechia Gdańsk	3:2 ✺
14.09.24	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	5:0 ✺
01.09.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Widzew Łódź	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWWLW

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