Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 8

Date: 19 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4, RedeTV!, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Coritiba		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2	3	4.5	Watch
	1.98	3.1	3.7
	1.99	2.95	4.4
	2.06	3.05	4.84
	1.96	2.95	4.61
	2.1	3	3.8
	1.9	2.97	4.89	Watch
	1.99	2.95	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.34)	3 ↑ (2.97)	4.39 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
47.1%

Draw
31.4%

América Mineiro
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

31.5%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

30.5%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Coritiba's performance.

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Coritiba that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	33.3%	11.1%

Coritiba - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). América MG will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Coritiba: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - América MG (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. América MG (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 20. Alex Silva 15. Guilherme Vargas 26. Bruno Melo 73. Zeca 8. Filipe Machado 36. Vini Paulista 19. Gomez S. (C) 10. Josue 91. Gustavo Coutinho 7. Nicolas Careca	1. Matheus Mendes (G) 18. Julio Cesar 45. Ricardo Silva 3. Lucao (C) 29. Paulinho 15. Kaua Diniz 88. Cauan Barros 21. Jhosefer 22. Figueiredo 9. Willian Bigode 17. Stenio
Substitutes
67. Benassi (G) 49. Dellatorre 27. de Pena C. 5. Geovane 38. Geovane Meurer 16. Joao Almeida 3. Maicon 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 97. Ruan Assis 23. Tiago Coser 70. Wallisson	5. Elizari F. 8. Felipe Amaral 30. Gustavinho 12. Jori (G) 47. Kauan Cristtyan 23. Mariano 6. Marlon 42. Miqueias 4. Pedro Barcelos 78. Renato Marques 71. Samuel 40. Yago Souza
Coaches
Mozart	William Batista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Stenio 🟨,
9', Gomez S. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Gomez S. ⚽,
35', Guilherme Vargas ↓, Maicon ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Dellatorre ↑,
58', Vini Paulista ↓, Wallisson ↑,
58', Paulinho ↓, Marlon ↑,
59', Kaua Diniz ↓, Elizari F. ↑,
67', Filipe Machado 🟨,
67', Nicolas Careca ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,
67', Filipe Machado ↓, Geovane ↑,
67', Stenio ↓, Gustavinho ↑,
67', Mariano ↓, Samuel ↑,
72', Maicon 🟨,
73', Jhosefer 🟨,
74', Zeca 🟨,
77', Jhosefer ↓, Renato Marques ↑,
82', Renato Marques 🟨,
90+2', Geovane 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 3.

Coritiba is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, América MG has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

América MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Coritiba will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Coritiba: Dellatorre (Inactive) Everaldo (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Inactive) Rodrigo Moledo (Inactive)

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Inactive) Guilherme Pato (Inactive)

There are questionable in América MG: Yago Santos (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 2:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
10.05.25	Goiás - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
02.05.25	Ferroviária - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Remo - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
16.04.25	Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWLT
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
14.05.25	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
04.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
26.04.25	Avaí - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
20.04.25	América Mineiro - Goiás	1:0 ✺
17.04.25	América Mineiro - Amazonas	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
04.10.24	América Mineiro - Coritiba	2:1
19.06.24	Coritiba - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
08.11.23	América Mineiro - Coritiba	0:3
08.07.23	Coritiba - América Mineiro	3:1
03.09.22	América Mineiro - Coritiba	2:0
15.05.22	Coritiba - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
28.09.19	Coritiba - América Mineiro	2:1

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