Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 6

Date: 2 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ferroviária		Coritiba

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.7	2.5	Watch
	2.45	2.85	2.9
	2.95	2.8	2.7
	3.26	2.79	2.67
	3.07	2.74	2.67	Watch
	2.5	2.88	3
	2.99	2.88	2.61	Watch
	3.05	2.8	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↑ (2.4)	2.81 ↓ (3.08)	2.71 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
31.9%

Draw
33.4%

Coritiba
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

30.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

30.3%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferroviária's form might have worsened.

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferroviária, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Ferroviária - Coritiba Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 44. Maycon 14. Eric Melo 5. Ricardinho (C) 8. Alencar 35. Netinho 25. Ian Luccas 77. Juninho 92. Carlao	12. Pedro Rangel (G) 20. Alex Silva 15. Guilherme Vargas 26. Bruno Melo 73. Zeca 19. Gomez S. (C) 8. Filipe Machado 70. Wallisson 10. Josue 11. Lucas Ronier 91. Gustavo Coutinho
Substitutes
20. Albano 10. Cassio Gabriel 83. Erik Nascimento 95. Filipe Costa (G) 70. Igor Bolt 7. Kevin 99. Quirino 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 37. Thiago Lopes 57. Wesley Pomba 31. Ze Mario	67. Benassi (G) 27. de Pena C. 22. Felipe Guimaraes 2. Fracchia M. 87. Gabriel Leite (G) 5. Geovane 16. Joao Almeida 9. Junior Brumado 3. Maicon 97. Ruan Assis 23. Tiago Coser 36. Vini Paulista
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Mozart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Gustavo Coutinho ⚽, Filipe Machado (A),
28', Josue 🟨,
29', Eric Melo 🟨,
29', Lucas Ronier 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Alencar ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
46', Ian Luccas ↓, Albano ↑,
52', Bruno Melo 🟨,
55', Lucas Rodrigues 🟨,
64', 1 - 1, Carlao ⚽, Juninho (A),
68', Wallisson 🟨,
70', Wallisson ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,
70', Gustavo Coutinho ↓, Junior Brumado ↑,
73', Juninho ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
78', Josue ↓, Geovane ↑,
78', Filipe Machado ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
80', Guilherme Vargas 🟨,
80', Ricardinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
81', Eric Melo ↓, Ze Mario ↑,
81', Lucas Ronier ↓, Ruan Assis ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Carlao ⚽, Ze Mario (A),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

Recent performances by Ferroviária have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Coritiba is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Vitor Barreto (Inactive) Ze Mario (Inactive)

There will not play in Coritiba: Dellatorre (Inactive) Everaldo (Inactive) Nicolas Careca (Injury) Pedro Morisco (Inactive) Rodrigo Moledo (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
27.04.25	Cuiabá - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
22.04.25	Volta Redonda - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
17.04.25	Ferroviária - Atlético Goianiense	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Amazonas - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Ferroviária - Remo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LTWTT
- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Remo - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
16.04.25	Coritiba - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Chapecoense - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Coritiba - Vila Nova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTWW

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