Match Info

BRAZIL: Paranaense - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, NSports, Sky+, Vivo Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Coritiba		Maringá

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.1	7
	1.5	3.75	5.5
	1.53	4	6
	1.56	4.18	5.71
	1.48	4.1	5.88	Watch
	1.5	3.7	6
	1.45	3.94	6.44	Watch
	1.53	4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.58)	3.97 ↑ (3.85)	6.07 ↑ (5.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
61.5%

Draw
23.2%

Maringá
15.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

24.1%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.9%

22.9%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Maringá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Coritiba that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Coritiba - Maringá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Morisco (G) 49. Dellatorre 2. Fracchia M. 5. Geovane 19. Gomez S. 91. Gustavo Coutinho 10. Josue 11. Lucas Ronier 3. Maicon 13. Rafinha (C) 14. Thalisson	1. Dheimison (G) 14. Buga 3. Carvalho R. (C) 7. Edison Negueba 99. Maranhao 9. Matheus Moraes 23. Max Miller 22. Raphinha 8. Rodrigo Santos 13. Tito 18. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
67. Benassi (G) 37. Everaldo 22. Felipe Guimaraes 38. Geovane Meurer 15. Guliherme A. 16. Joao Vitor 25. Jorge Vinicius 12. Pedro Rangel (G) 99. Thiago Azaf 23. Tiago Coser 36. Vini Paulista 57. Wesley Pomba	32. Caua 2. Cristovam 31. Fernando 6. Joao Felix 12. Joao Gabriel (G) 19. Julio Rodrigues 10. Leo Ceara 28. Lucas Bonifacio 15. Parrudo 11. Robertinho 21. Vitinho
Coaches
Moura Pinheiro M.	Jorge Castilho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Gustavo Coutinho ⚽,
13', Jorge Castilho 🟨,
14', Moura Pinheiro M. 🟨,
20', Ze Vitor 🟨,
22', Rodrigo Santos 🟨,
30', Lucas Ronier 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Matheus Moraes ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
48', Max Miller 🟨,
56', Raphinha ↓, Caua ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Maranhao ⚽,
74', Rafinha ↓, Felipe Guimaraes ↑,
74', Maicon ↓, Joao Vitor ↑,
74', Gomez S. ↓, Geovane Meurer ↑,
80', Fracchia M. ↓, Thiago Azaf ↑,
81', Ze Vitor ↓, Leo Ceara ↑,
81', Maranhao ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
85', Buga ↓, Lucas Bonifacio ↑,
88', Pedro Morisco ↓, Pedro Rangel ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paranaense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Paranaense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 1.

Recent matches Coritiba is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Maringá is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Maringá could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Coritiba have a series of guest games.

Recently Maringá have a series of home games.

In this match Coritiba is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Coritiba won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 22:16 (average 1.6:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Coritiba won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:11 (average 2:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Copa do Brasil
27.02.25	Ceilândia - Coritiba	3:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.25	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Paraná Clube Curitiba - Coritiba	0:2 ✺
11.02.25	Coritiba - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
08.02.25	Azuriz - Coritiba	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LLWTW
- Maringá FC
Copa do Brasil
06.03.25	Maringá - União Carmolandense	4:2 ✺
25.02.25	Maringá - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.25	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Operário Ferroviario - Maringá	2:1 ✺
12.02.25	Maringá - Azuriz	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paranaense
22.02.25	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0
22.01.25	Maringá - Coritiba	0:2
24.03.24	Coritiba - Maringá	0:0
17.03.24	Maringá - Coritiba	2:0
14.02.24	Coritiba - Maringá	2:2
25.01.23	Maringá - Coritiba	0:1
03.04.22	Coritiba - Maringá	4:2

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